Table 4.
Benefits and harms of 10 years of aspirin use on the incidence of major events by age and sex
| Age at starting | 50 years |
55 years |
60 years |
65 years |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence | Baseline | Reduction | Baseline | Reduction | Baseline | Reduction | Baseline | Reduction |
| Cancer | ||||||||
| Men | 9.70 | 0.92 (0.65) | 15.20 | 1.52 (1.07) | 20.75 | 2.09 (1.45) | 25.39 | 2.51 (1.75) |
| Women | 10.41 | 0.76 (0.48) | 13.19 | 1.03 (0.67) | 15.78 | 1.26 (0.85) | 18.08 | 1.48 (1.03) |
| MI | ||||||||
| Men | 5.13 | 0.52 | 6.75 | 0.68 | 8.72 | 0.89 | 10.92 | 1.15 |
| Women | 1.62 | 0.15 | 2.59 | 0.23 | 4.22 | 0.37 | 6.69 | 0.61 |
| Stroke | ||||||||
| Men | 2.14 | 0.06 | 3.16 | 0.08 | 4.66 | 0.12 | 6.66 | 0.18 |
| Women | 1.71 | 0.05 | 2.54 | 0.07 | 3.84 | 0.10 | 5.75 | 0.15 |
| Total | ||||||||
| Men | 16.97 | 1.50 (1.22) | 25.11 | 2.29 (1.83) | 34.13 | 3.10 (2.47) | 42.97 | 3.84 (3.09) |
| Women | 13.74 | 0.95 (0.68) | 18.32 | 1.32 (0.97) | 23.83 | 1.73 (1.32) | 30.53 | 2.24 (1.79) |
| Adverse events | Baseline | Excess | Baseline | Excess | Baseline | Excess | Baseline | Excess |
| Major extracranial bleeding | ||||||||
| Men | 1.12 | 0.32 (0.42) | 1.58 | 0.49 (0.64) | 2.00 | 0.66 (0.85) | 2.37 | 0.81 (1.05) |
| Women | 0.57 | 0.16 (0.21) | 0.81 | 0.25 (0.32) | 1.05 | 0.34 (0.44) | 1.30 | 0.43 (0.55) |
| Net benefit | Baseline | Reduction | Baseline | Reduction | Baseline | Reduction | Baseline | Reduction |
| Men | 18.09 | 1.18 (0.81) | 26.70 | 1.80 (1.19) | 36.13 | 2.44 (1.62) | 45.34 | 3.03 (2.03) |
| Women | 14.31 | 0.79 (0.47) | 19.13 | 1.07 (0.65) | 24.88 | 1.39 (0.88) | 31.83 | 1.82 (1.24) |
Baseline probabilities of an event and aspirin-related reductions (per 100 individuals in 15 years) using best (and conservative) estimates for prophylactic use of aspirin for 10 years on the incidence of major events namely cancer, myocardial infarction, stroke and major bleeding according to sex and age at starting use. All estimates are adjusted for inter-current mortality.
Effects on cardiovascular and bleeding events are assumed to occur only during active treatment (10 years) and those for cancer do not start until after 3 years of use but persist for an additional 5 years after treatment completion. Baseline rates are for the entire 15-year period. Figures in parentheses are conservative estimates.
The figures in bold represent overall benefits, overall harms and net balance of benefit and harm.