Table 5.
Benefits and harms of 10 years of aspirin on mortality by age and sex
| Age at starting | 50 years |
55 years |
60 years |
65 years |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mortality | Baseline | Reduction | Baseline | Reduction | Baseline | Reduction | Baseline | Reduction |
| Cancer | ||||||||
| Men | 7.45 | 0.99 (0.80) | 11.59 | 1.48 (1.19) | 16.40 | 2.04 (1.62) | 20.53 | 2.41 (1.91) |
| Women | 6.12 | 0.53 (0.39) | 8.80 | 0.78 (0.58) | 12.04 | 1.09 (0.82) | 15.26 | 1.39 (1.06) |
| MI | ||||||||
| Men | 5.08 | 0.07 | 8.05 | 0.12 | 11.80 | 0.20 | 15.13 | 0.31 |
| Women | 1.80 | 0.02 | 3.44 | 0.04 | 6.02 | 0.08 | 9.33 | 0.14 |
| Total | ||||||||
| Men | 12.53 | 1.05 (0.86) | 19.64 | 1.60 (1.30) | 28.19 | 2.24 (1.82) | 35.66 | 2.72 (2.22) |
| Women | 7.92 | 0.55 (0.40) | 12.24 | 0.82 (0.61) | 18.06 | 1.16 (0.89) | 24.60 | 1.53 (1.20) |
| Adverse events | Baseline | Excess | Baseline | Excess | Baseline | Excess | Baseline | Excess |
| Stroke | ||||||||
| Men | 1.03 | 0.06 | 1.85 | 0.09 | 3.21 | 0.17 | 4.83 | 0.32 |
| Women | 0.74 | 0.04 | 1.47 | 0.06 | 2.90 | 0.11 | 5.12 | 0.26 |
| GI bleeding | ||||||||
| Men | 0.19 | 0.04 (0.04) | 0.34 | 0.05 (0.06) | 0.57 | 0.08 (0.09) | 0.74 | 0.17 (0.19) |
| Women | 0.12 | 0.02 (0.03) | 0.22 | 0.03 (0.04) | 0.39 | 0.05 (0.06) | 0.59 | 0.11 (0.13) |
| Peptic ulcer | ||||||||
| Men | 0.08 | 0.02 (0.02) | 0.12 | 0.03 (0.03) | 0.15 | 0.03 (0.04) | 0.17 | 0.05 (0.06) |
| Women | 0.07 | 0.02 (0.02) | 0.10 | 0.02 (0.02) | 0.13 | 0.03 (0.03) | 0.16 | 0.04 (0.05) |
| Total | ||||||||
| Men | 1.29 | 0.11 (0.12) | 2.31 | 0.17 (0.18) | 3.93 | 0.28 (0.30) | 5.73 | 0.54 (0.58) |
| Women | 0.93 | 0.09 (0.09) | 1.79 | 0.11 (0.12) | 3.42 | 0.19 (0.21) | 5.86 | 0.41 (0.44) |
| All-cause deaths | Baseline | Reduction | Baseline | Reduction | Baseline | Reduction | Baseline | Reduction |
| Men | 18.02 | 0.94 (0.74) | 27.67 | 1.43 (1.12) | 41.99 | 1.96 (1.52) | 58.74 | 2.18 (1.64) |
| Women | 11.82 | 0.47 (0.31) | 18.55 | 0.70 (0.49) | 29.86 | 0.97 (0.69) | 47.45 | 1.12 (0.76) |
Baseline ‘20-year’ event-specific mortality probabilities and aspirin-related reductions (per 100 individuals) using best (and conservative) estimates for prophylactic use of aspirin for 10 years on mortality due to cancer, myocardial infarction, stroke and aspirin-related adverse events (peptic ulcer and gastrointestinal bleeding) according to sex and age at starting use.
Effects on cardiovascular and bleeding events are assumed to occur only during active treatment (10 years) and those for cancer do not start until after 5 years of use but persist for an additional 10 years after treatment completion. Baseline rates are for the entire 20-year period. Figures in parentheses are conservative estimates.
The figures in bold represent overall benefits, overall harms and net balance of benefit and harm.