Table 3. Excess Mortality Due to Emissions from Aviation Sector (ages ≥25 Years, GBD Adjusted Population)a.
| 2006 | 2050 |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| over 25 excess mortality | baseline | ref (factor of increase from baseline) | Tech & Op (factor of increase from baseline) | Alt Fuel (factor of increase from baseline) | |
| ischemic heart disease (IHD) | upper bound | 328 | 3406 (9.4) | 1445 (3.4) | 991 (2.0) |
| central | 192 | 2935 (14.2) | 1208 (5.3) | 829 (3.3) | |
| lower bound | 123 | 1929 (14.6) | 782 (5.4) | 522 (3.2) | |
| stroke | upper bound | 194 | 1998 (9.3) | 832 (3.3) | 588 (2.0) |
| central | 136 | 1725 (11.7) | 721 (4.3) | 517 (2.8) | |
| lower bound | 39 | 589 (14.1) | 245 (5.3) | 173 (3.4) | |
| chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) | upper bound | 58 | 590 (9.2) | 260 (3.5) | 137 (1.4) |
| central | 36 | 346 (8.6) | 155 (3.3) | 73 (1.0) | |
| lower bound | 13 | 112 (7.6) | 53 (3.1) | 16 (0.2) | |
| lung cancer (LC) | upper bound | 67 | 846 (11.6) | 352 (4.3) | 255 (2.8) |
| central | 41 | 484 (10.8) | 202 (3.9) | 143 (2.5) | |
| lower bound | 7 | 80 (10.4) | 34 (3.9) | 21 (2.0) | |
| total | upper bound | 648 | 6841 (9.6) | 2889 (3.5) | 1970 (2.0) |
| central | 405 | 5490 (12.6) | 2287 (4.6) | 1562 (2.9) | |
| lower bound | 182 | 2710 (13.9) | 1114 (5.1) | 732 (3.0) | |
a
Shows excess mortality due to PM2.5 from the aviation sector for four outcomes under each of the four scenarios. The lower and upper bounds were calculated using the lower and upper bounds of each of the three parameters in the health impact calculations. Present day population was used for both 2006 and 2050 calculations.