Table 1.
Comparison of Bayesian phylogenetic analyses made using the empirical calibrated radiocarbon sampler (ECRS) and median sample ages. Data shown include estimates and 95% highest posterior density (HPD) intervals for the substitution rate and age of the root; speed of the BEAST run; and Bayes factors for the ECRS compared with median sample ages, with marginal likelihoods calculated using stepping-stone and path sampling.
| Substitutions/site/year | Time to most recent common ancestor | Run speed |
Bayes factors | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Population model |
Substitution model |
Sample ages used |
Median estimate |
95% HPD | 95% HPD width |
95% HPD width ratioa |
Median estimate |
95% HPD | 95% HPD width |
95% HPD width ratioa |
Run speed ratiob |
Via stepping- stone samplinga |
Via path samplinga |
|
| Bison | skygrid | TRN+G6 | Median | 4.39×10−7 | 3.26×10−7 – 5.60×10−7 | 2.34×10−7 | 1.01 | 1.08×105 | 8.81×104 – 1.37×105 | 4.86×104 | 1.03 | 2.47 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| ECRS | 4.39×10−7 | 3.25×10−7 – 5.60×10−7 | 2.35×10−7 | 1.08×105 | 8.86×104 – 1.37×105 | 5.03×104 | ||||||||
| Human | skygrid | TRN+G6 | Median | 1.99×10−8 | 1.58×10−8 – 2.42×10−8 | 8.37×10−9 | 0.94 | 1.54×105 | 1.22×105 – 1.96×105 | 7.36×104 | 0.92 | 0.62 | 1.63 | 2.22 |
| ECRS | 2.03×10−8 | 1.64×10−8 – 2.43×10−8 | 7.90×10−9 | 1.53×105 | 1.22×105 – 1.90×105 | 6.74×104 | ||||||||
| Musk ox | constant | TVM+G6 | Median | 8.16×10−7 | 6.20×10−7 – 1.02×10−6 | 3.99×10−7 | 0.94 | 8.04×104 | 6.78×104 – 9.51×104 | 2.72×104 | 1.00 | 4.45 | 0.91 | 0.10 |
| ECRS | 8.09×10−7 | 6.23×10−7 – 9.99×10−7 | 3.76×10−7 | 8.05×104 | 6.74×104 – 9.47×104 | 2.72×104 | ||||||||
a
ECRS vs median age
b
ECRS vs median age run speed calculated as hours per 100 ESS for rate estimate