Table 5.
Hosmer–Lemeshow tabulation: survival probability in 10 patient deciles in the validation dataset
| Decile | Probability of survival | Survivors (n) | Non-survivors (n) | Total | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Observed | Predicted | Observed | Predicted | |||
| 1 | < 0.7897 | 136 | 118.8 | 116 | 133.2 | 252 |
| 2 | 0.7897– | 226 | 225.6 | 26 | 26.4 | 252 |
| 3 | 0.9517– | 246 | 245.2 | 6 | 6.8 | 252 |
| 4 | 0.9852– | 247 | 248.5 | 4 | 2.5 | 251 |
| 5 | 0.9938– | 250 | 250.9 | 2 | 1.1 | 252 |
| 6 | 0.9970– | 252 | 251.5 | 0 | 0.5 | 252 |
| 7 | 0.9986– | 251 | 250.7 | 0 | 0.3 | 251 |
| 8 | 0.9993– | 251 | 251.9 | 1 | 0.1 | 252 |
| 9 | 0.9996– | 253 | 252.9 | 0 | 0.1 | 253 |
| 10 | > 0.9997 | 250 | 249.9 | 0 | 0.1 | 250 |
Deciles were constructed by ranking all patients from lowest to highest probability of survival and then dividing the material in 10 equally sized groups. Overall mortality was low; only the two lowest deciles had probabilities of survival less than 95%. The skewed distribution invalidated the use of the Hosmer–Lemeshow statistical test.