Table 2.

Input values, plausible ranges for unknown parameters, and calibration targets for the simple Markov model.

Parameter	Value or Range
Time Horizon	30 years
Annual discount rate	3%
Annual transition probabilities
Disease onset (healthy to S1)	0.15
Recovery (S1 to healthy)	0.5
Disease progression (S1 to S2)	(0.01 – 0.48)
Annual probability of death
Healthy individuals	0.005
Relative risk in S1, relative to healthy	(1.0 – 4.5)
Relative risk in S2, relative to healthy	(1.0 – 20)
Annual costs
Healthy individuals	$2,000
Sick individuals in S1	$4,000
Sick individuals in S2	$15,000
Quality-of-life
Healthy individuals	1.00
Sick individuals in S1	0.75
Sick individuals in S2	0.50
Intervention effects
Annual treatment cost per sick individual	$12,000
Quality-of-life of treated individuals in S1	0.95
Calibration Target	Target Value
Overall 5-year survival	98%
Overall 10-year survival	84%
Prevalence of disease in year 5	15%
Ratio of S1:S2	8:1