Appendix Table 1.

Aortic stenosis natural history model inputs estimated using calibration

Variable	Description	Range	Notes*
	Hazard Ratio (HR) on Age-Specific Mortality Rate
	NYHA class I/II symptoms
A	2 to 6 months	2-5.6	A > B
B	7+ months	1.1-2.9
	NYHA class III/IV symptoms
C	2 to 6 months	5.8-13.9	C > D
D	7 to 12 months	4.1-12.8
E	13+ months	1.2-7.9	E > B
	Annual rate of hospitalization (per 10,000)
	NYHA class I/II symptoms
F	2+ months	0-1,000
	NYHA class III/IV symptoms
G	≤ 12 months	0-15,000	G > F
H	13+ months	7,000-60,000	H > G
	Annual rate of progressing from NYHA class I/II to class III/IV symptoms (per 10,000)
	TAVR
I	2 to 6 months	0-1,500
J	7+ months	0-6,000	J > I
	Balloon valvuloplasty
K	2 to 6 months	0-10,000
L	7+ months	0-5,000	L < K
	Annual rate of stroke (per 10,000)
	TAVR
M	2 to 6 months	0-2000
N	7+ months	0-2000	N < M
	Balloon valvuloplasty
O	2+ months	0-2000	0 < N

NYHA -- New York Heart Association

^*If the randomly drawn value for the parameter does not satisfy the constraint, the value is replaced by the closest value satisfying the constraint