Appendix Table 2.
Calibration targets for the aortic stenosis natural history model estimated using (12)
| Description | TAVR Mean (95% CI of target) | PARTNER OMM Mean (95% CI of target) |
|---|---|---|
| Death by any cause | ||
| 1 month | 5% (2-8%) | 2.8% (0-5%) |
| 6 months | 23% (17-31%) | 30% (22-38%) |
| 12 months | 31% (23-39%) | 52% (41-63%) |
| 18 months | 37% (26-49%) | 60% (45-75%) |
| 24 months | 43% (24-62%) | 66% (39-93%) |
| Death or hospitalization | ||
| 1 month | 11% (6-15%) | 12% (7-17%) |
| 6 months | 36% (27-44%) | 50% (40-61%) |
| 12 months | 43% (33-52%) | 72% (60-85%) |
| 18 months | 48% (35-61%) | 81% (65-97%) |
| 24 months | 56% (35-77%) | 90% (60-100%) |
| Stroke | ||
| 1 month | 5.0% (3.3-6.7%) | 1.8% (0.8-2.7%) |
| 12 months | 7.8% (5.8-9.8%) | 3.9% (2.5-5.4%) |
| Proportion of patients with NYHA class I/II symptoms | ||
| 1 month | 63% (56-70%) | 26% (19-32%) |
| 6 months | 60% (52-68%) | 19% (12-26%) |
| 12 months | 49% (41-58%) | 19% (10-27%) |
| Rate of change in symptom status (% change per month) | ||
| 1 to 6 months | -0.6% | -1.4% |
| 6 to 12 months | -1.8% | 0% |
| 1 to 12 months* | -0.6% |
NYHA -- New York Heart Association
*
The rate of change from 1 to 12 months was used instead of the rate of change from 6 to 12 months for the GOF scoring scheme 2 (percent error) to avoid dividing by zero.