Table 1.

Model transition probabilities and data sources^11,15,21,24

Transition	Probability	Data Source
CVC to functioning AVF on first attempt	Logistic regression: varying by age, sex, and diabetes status with 90-d transition time	REDUCE FTM (Lok et al.11)
CVC to functioning AVG on first attempt	0.95 with 30-d transition time	DAC Study Group (Dixon et al.24)
Continue CVC	1.0	Assumed
CVC to functioning AVF on second attempt	Logistic regression: varying by age, sex, and diabetes status with 90-d transition time	REDUCE FTM (Lok et al.11)
CVC to functioning AVG on second attempt	0.95 with 30-d transition time	DAC Study Group (Dixon et al.24)
Continued AVF function	Subsequent function after initial successful creation: 1 yr: 90%a; 3 yr: 80%a; subsequent function after successful second attempt: 1 yr: 75%a; 3 yr: 50%a	Xue et al.15
Continued AVG function	1 yr: 71.8%; 3 yr: 51.5%a	Gibson et al.21
AVF to death	Survival curve on the basis of age, sex, and diabetes status	DOPPS 2
AVG to death	Survival curve on the basis of age, sex, and diabetes status	DOPPS 2
CVC to death	Survival curve on the basis of age, sex, and diabetes status	DOPPS 2

AVF, AV fistula; REDUCE FTM, risk equation determining unsuccessful cannulation events and failure to maturation in AV fistulas; AVG, AV graft; DAC, Dialysis Access Consortium.

^aValue extrapolated from published data.