Table 2.
Frequency, incidence rates, HRs, and 95% CIs for incident ESRD by quintile of serum levels of FGF-23 in the ARIC study (1990–2010; n=13,448)
| Rate | Quintile of Serum Level of FGF-23 (pg/ml) | P Value for Trenda | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 (<32.0) | 2 (32.0–38.5) | 3 (38.6–45.3) | 4 (45.4–54.6) | 5 (>54.6) | ||
| Participants (n) | 2690 | 2690 | 2689 | 2690 | 2689 | |
| Events | 25 (0.9) | 30 (1.1) | 43 (1.6) | 56 (2.1) | 113 (4.2) | <0.001 |
| Incidence rateb | 0.53 (0.36 to 0.78) | 0.63 (0.44 to 0.90) | 0.91 (0.67 to 1.22) | 1.21 (0.93 to 1.57) | 2.55 (2.12 to 3.06) | <0.001 |
| Modelc | ||||||
| 1 | 1 [Ref] | 1.19 (0.70 to 2.03) | 1.72 (1.05 to 2.81) | 2.30 (1.43 to 3.68) | 4.88 (3.16 to 7.52) | <0.001 |
| 2 | 1 [Ref] | 1.20 (0.70 to 2.04) | 1.72 (1.05 to 2.82) | 2.18 (1.36 to 3.50) | 4.47 (2.89 to 6.90) | <0.001 |
| 3 | 1 [Ref] | 1.10 (0.65 to 1.87) | 1.41 (0.86 to 2.32) | 1.42 (0.88 to 2.28) | 1.92 (1.23 to 3.02) | <0.001 |
| 4 | 1 [Ref] | 1.08 (0.63 to 1.85) | 1.48 (0.90 to 2.45) | 1.33 (0.82 to 2.17) | 1.97 (1.25 to 3.11) | <0.001 |
| 5 | 1 [Ref] | 1.10 (0.64 to 1.91) | 1.58 (0.95 to 2.64) | 1.37 (0.83 to 2.25) | 2.10 (1.31 to 3.36) | <0.001 |
Data are presented as n (%) or HR (95% CI) unless otherwise specified. Ref, reference group.
Linear trend across the quintiles using the median of each quintile.
Unadjusted incidence rate (95% CI) per 1000 person-years.
Models are as follows: model 1 is unadjusted (no covariates included in the model); model 2 is adjusted for age, sex, and race; model 3 is adjusted for the variables in model 2 plus eGFRCr, eGFRCys, and eGFRCr-Cys; model 4 is adjusted for the variables in model 3 plus diabetes, systolic BP, antihypertensive medication, HDL cholesterol, body mass index, C-reactive protein, and β2-microglobulin; and model 5 is adjusted for variables in model 4 plus phosphate, calcium, and parathyroid hormone.