Table 2.
Step-up model selection procedure, ANODEV and LRT tests for individual trait, top-down and bottom-up covariates. At each step, only the most significant variable is shown. Recapture and transition probabilities specified as Model 1 (Table1)
| Step | Model | k | d.f. | ANODEV tests for cohort-level covariates | LRT tests for individual-level covariates | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| F | P | R2 | χ2 | P | ||||
| 1 | ./. | 10 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
| 2 | Mass/. | 11 | 1 | – | – | – | 11·00 | <0·01 |
| 3 | Mass + Pred./Pred. * | 12 | 1 | 11·29 | <0·01 | 0·43 | – | – |
| 4 | Mass + Pred./Pred. | 13 | 1 | 3·46 | 0·08 | 0·20 | – | – |
| 5 | Mass + Pred. + LSST−1/Pred. + LSST−1 | 14 | 1 | 7·25 | 0·02 | 0·36 | – | – |
| 6 | Mass + Pred. + LSST−1 + SAM0/Pred.+ LSST−1 + SAM0 | 15 | 1 | 1·46 | 0·22 | 0·12 | ||
| – | n.s. » Stop | |||||||
Survival probabilities are separated by a forward slash to show the model structure for each age class, fledgling year/older than 1 year.
Unless specified predation pressure was included as an interactive effect with age class and environmental covariates as an additive effect with age class (see Table S4 for all other candidate models considered). (*) Predation pressure included as an additive effect with age class. (d.f.) degrees of freedom given as the difference in the number of estimable parameters between the two models compared using the step-up procedure. R2 (R2_DEV) gives the further deviance explained by adding a covariate.