Table 2.
Life expectancy at birth (e0) by gender and period controlling for separate and combined effects of AIDS and TB, and recently returned migrants, Agincourt sub-district South Africa, 1994–2006.
| e0 1994 to 1997 [95% CI] | e0 2003 to mid-2006 [95% CI] | Loss in e0 [95% CI] | Effect contribution to loss in e0 [95% CI] | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Males | (a) Observed | 60.0 | 38.0 | 22.0 | |
| [57.7–62.4] | [36.6–39.4] | [21.1–22.9] | |||
| (b) Excluding recent migrants | 62.8 | 48.4 | 14.4 | ||
| [60.2–65.5] | [46.0–50.9] | [14.2–14.6] | (b - a)/a = | ||
| (b - a) = recent migrant effect | 2.8 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 34.6% | |
| [2.5–3.1] | [9.4–11.4] | [6.9–8.3] | [32.6–36.3] | ||
| (c) Excluding AIDS/TB | 66.4 | 61.1 | 5.2 | ||
| [64.6–68.1] | [60.2–62.0] | [4.4–6.1] | (c - a)/a = | ||
| (c - a) = effect of AIDS/TB | 6.4 | 23.1 | 16.7 | 76.1% | |
| [6.9–5.7] | [23.6–22.6] | [16.7–16.9] | [73.6–79.0] | ||
| (d) Excl. AIDS/TB of recent migrants | 62.7 | 53.4 | 9.3 | ||
| [60.8–64.6] | [52.3–54.5] | [8.5–10.1] | (d - a)/a = | ||
| (d - a) = effect of AIDS/TB of recent migrants | 2.7 | 15.4 | 12.7 | 57.6% | |
| [2.3–3.0] | [15.1–15.6] | [12.0–13.4] | [57.0–58.4] | ||
| Females | (a) Observed | 74.1 | 52.7 | 21.4 | |
| [71.8–76.3] | [50.7–54.6] | [21.1–21.7] | |||
| (b) Excluding recent migrants | 74.3 | 57.9 | 16.4 | ||
| [71.9–76.6] | [55.5–60.2] | [16.4–16.4] | (b - a)/a = | ||
| (b - a) = recent migrants effect | 0.2 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 23.3% | |
| [0.1–0.3] | [4.8–5.6] | [4.7–5.2] | [22.2–24.2] | ||
| (c) Excluding AIDS/TB | 76.0 | 70.3 | 5.7 | ||
| [74.3–77.7] | [69.1–71.4] | [5.2–6.3] | (c - a)/a = | ||
| (c - a) = effect of AIDS/TB | 1.9 | 17.6 | 15.7 | 73.2% | |
| [2.4–1.3] | [18.4–16.7] | [16.0–15.4] | [71.0–75.5] | ||
| (d) Excl. AIDS/TB of recent migrants | 74.2 | 59.5 | 14.6 | ||
| [72.2–76.0] | [57.9–61.1] | [14.3–14.9] | (d - a)/a = | ||
| (d - a) = effect of AIDS/TB of recent migrants | 0.1 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 31.6% | |
| [−0.3–0.4] | [6.5–7.2] | [6.8–6.8] | [31.6–32.0] | ||
| Total | (a) Observed | 68.3 | 45.8 | 22.5 | |
| [66.6–69.9] | [44.6–47.1] | [22.0–22.9] | |||
| (b) Excluding recent migrants | 69.9 | 54.3 | 15.6 | ||
| [68.1–71.6] | [52.6–56.0] | [15.5–15.6] | (b - a)/a = | ||
| (b - a) = recent migrants effect | 1.6 | 8.5 | 6.9 | 30.6% | |
| [1.5–1.7] | [8.0–8.9] | [6.5–7.2] | [29.6–31.6] | ||
| (c) Excluding AIDS/TB | 72.0 | 65.9 | 6.1 | ||
| [70.8–73.2] | [65.1–66.6] | [5.6–6.6] | (c - a)/a = | ||
| (c - a) = effect of AIDS/TB | 3.8 | 20.1 | 16.3 | 72.7% | |
| [3.3–4.2] | [19.6–20.6] | [16.3–16.4] | [71.7–73.8] | ||
| (d) Excl. AIDS/TB of recent migrants | 69.4 | 56.2 | 13.2 | ||
| [68.0–70.7] | [55.2–57.2] | [12.8–13.6] | (d - a)/a = | ||
| (d - a) = effect of AIDS/TB of recent migrants | 1.1 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 41.3% | |
| [0.8–1.3] | [10.1–10.6] | [9.2–9.3] | [40.4–42.2] |
Notes: (1) Recently returned migrations (i.e. recent migrants) are in-migrants with more than 6 months and less than 3 years permanent residence in the Agincourt sub-district. (2) Effect contribution to loss in e0 is computed by dividing the years lost to the effect by the total years lost between the periods. For example, the total population lost 22.452 years in life expectancy. However, if AIDS and TB deaths of recent migrants are excluded the loss is only 13.199 years. The contribution of AIDS and TB deaths of recent migrants is therefore 9.252 years (22.452–13.199 = 9.252) i.e. 41.21% of the loss in e0 over the period (9.252/22.452 = 0.4121). Differences between actual computation using exact values and figures in table are due to rounding.