Table 3.

Annualised crude death rates (CDR) per 1000 person-years by gender and period, controlling for separate and combined effects of AIDS, TB and recently returned migrants, Agincourt sub-district, South Africa 1994–2006.

	1994 to 1997 [95% CI]	2003 to mid-2006 [95% CI]	Effect contribution to CDR increase [95% CI]
Males	6.64 [6.17–7.14]	19.11 [18.16 – 20.10]
Excluding recent migrants	6.11 [5.62–6.63]	12.58 [11.73 – 13.48]	48.1% [47.1–49.1]
Excluding AIDS/TB deaths	4.26 [3.88–4.67]	5.18 [4.69 – 5.70]	92.7% [92.0–93.3]
Excluding AIDS/TB deaths in recent migrants	5.24 [4.82–5.70]	7.21 [6.63 – 7.83]	84.2% [83.5–85.0]
Females	4.53 [4.18–4.90]	13.22 [12.54 – 13.94]
Excluding recent migrants	4.74 [4.35–5.16]	11.32 [10.61 – 12.07]	24.3% [23.5–25.1]
Excluding AIDS/TB	3.57 [3.25–3.91]	5.07 [4.65 – 5.52]	82.8% [82.1–83.3]
Excluding AIDS/TB deaths in recent migrants	4.10 [3.76–4.46]	8.56 [8.00 – 9.14]	48.8% [48.2–49.3]
Total	5.48 [5.19–5.78]	15.76 [15.19 – 16.35]
Excluding recent migrants	5.37 [5.05–5.69]	11.87 [11.32 – 12.44]	36.7% [36.1–37.3]
Excluding AIDS/TB	3.97 [3.72–4.22]	5.37 [5.04 – 5.72]	86.3% [85.9–86.8]
Excluding AIDS/TB deaths in recent migrants	4.71 [4.44–5.00]	8.40 [7.98 – 8.83]	64.1% [63.7–64.6]

Notes: (1) Recent migrants are migrants with more than 6 months and less than 3 years permanent residence in the Agincourt sub-district. (2) Contribution to increase in CDR is computed by dividing the CDR increase due to the effect by the total CDR increase between the periods (as in Table 2). For example, the total population CDR increased by 10.28 per 1000 person-years (15.76–5.48=10.28). Excluding AIDS and TB deaths of recent migrants, the increase is only 3.69 per 1000 person-years (8.40–4.71=3.69). The contribution of AIDS and TB mortality in recent migrants is therefore 6.59 per 1000 person-years (10.28–3.69 = 6.59), i.e. 64.1% of CDR increase over the period (6.59/10.28 = 0.641).