Table 9.

Probability of delaying onset of dementia by 2025

Treatment scenario	Probability with existing infrastructure mean (95% CI)	Probability with recommended infrastructure mean (95% CI)	Difference in probability mean (95% CI)
At least a 2-year delay for 50% of cases	0.32 (0.22–0.42)	0.49 (0.39–0.59)	0.17 (0.11–0.23)
At least a 5-year delay for 50% of cases	0.16 (0.09–0.23)	0.31 (0.22–0.40)	0.15 (0.10–0.20)
At least a 5-year delay for 75% of cases	0.05 (0.02–0.07)	0.12 (0.07–0.17)	0.07 (0.04–0.11)

CI refers to confidence interval. Probability estimates were obtained from interviews with experts in Alzheimer's research. Answers for 2–year and 5-year delays in 50% of cases were provided by 17 interviewees. Answers for a 5-year delay in 75% of cases were provided by 12 interviewees. Confidence intervals are ± 1.96 times the standard error (estimated standard deviation of the mean).