Table 1. Performance of various geographic species distribution models to predict the expansion of Ae. albopictus in Panama.
Model | Area under the ROC Curve (AUC) | Average Suitability of 2010–2013 Occurrence Points | 2006–2009 10% Occurrence Threshold | % of 2010–2013 Occurrence Points above Threshold |
---|---|---|---|---|
Roads Only | 0.881 | 0.487 | 0.600 | 80% |
Population Density Only | 0.957 | 0.302 | 0.239 | 53% |
Roads and Population Density | 0.975 | 0.319 | 0.329 | 49% |
Climate, Roads, and Population Density | 0.986 | 0.291 | 0.369 | 39% |
Roads and Climate | 0.894 | 0.306 | 0.353 | 36% |
Climate and Population Density | 0.982 | 0.285 | 0.383 | 35% |
Climate Only | 0.979 | 0.309 | 0.438 | 34% |
Models were parameterized using occurrence points sampled between 2006 and 2009. Area under the curve (AUC) measures the efficiency of the model to discriminate occurrences from random background points; AUC ranks did not correlate with model predictive performance. Model performance was evaluated using two criteria based on 2010–2013 occurrence points: first, by averaging the predicted suitability of all 110 occurrence points, and second, by calculating the frequency of those occurrence points having a predicted suitability above the 10% model threshold.