Table 1. Performance of various geographic species distribution models to predict the expansion of Ae. albopictus in Panama.

Model	Area under the ROC Curve (AUC)	Average Suitability of 2010–2013 Occurrence Points	2006–2009 10% Occurrence Threshold	% of 2010–2013 Occurrence Points above Threshold
Roads Only	0.881	0.487	0.600	80%
Population Density Only	0.957	0.302	0.239	53%
Roads and Population Density	0.975	0.319	0.329	49%
Climate, Roads, and Population Density	0.986	0.291	0.369	39%
Roads and Climate	0.894	0.306	0.353	36%
Climate and Population Density	0.982	0.285	0.383	35%
Climate Only	0.979	0.309	0.438	34%

Models were parameterized using occurrence points sampled between 2006 and 2009. Area under the curve (AUC) measures the efficiency of the model to discriminate occurrences from random background points; AUC ranks did not correlate with model predictive performance. Model performance was evaluated using two criteria based on 2010–2013 occurrence points: first, by averaging the predicted suitability of all 110 occurrence points, and second, by calculating the frequency of those occurrence points having a predicted suitability above the 10% model threshold.