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. Author manuscript; available in PMC: 2015 Jan 15.
Published in final edited form as: Cancer Prev Res (Phila). 2012 Apr 11;5(6):834–846. doi: 10.1158/1940-6207.CAPR-11-0237

Table 4.

Predictive performance, measured by the AUC, of our model and the Bach model for predicting 1- and 5-year cancer risk in the EPIC test set

Current smokers Former smokers Ever smokers Bach high-risk group
One year
 Controls 8,187 8,593 16,780 4,934
 Cases 92 34 126 82
 New 0.824 (0.783–0.865) 0.830 (0.762–0.899) 0.843 (0.810–0.875) 0.753 (0.700–0.806)
 Bach 0.732 (0.683–0.780) 0.787 (0.710–0.864) 0.775 (0.737–0.813) 0.656 (0.595–0.717)
  P 1.25 × 10−5 0.0957 3.91 × 10−6 1.61 × 10−4
Five years
 Controls 7,444 6,535 13,979 4,049
 Cases 43 10 53 37
 New 0.767 (0.701–0.832) 0.715 (0.532–0.898) 0.787 (0.728–0.847) 0.681 (0.597–0.765)
 Bach 0.749 (0.686–0.813) 0.753 (0.583–0.922) 0.743 (0.685–0.802) 0.589 (0.510–0.669)
  P 0.362 0.118a 0.024 0.0035

NOTE: Bach high-risk group are individuals between 50 and 75 years old who have smoked 10 to 60 cpd for 25 to 55 years. Also shown is the P value for improvement in AUC of our model compared with the Bach model.

a

AUC for 5-year prediction of former smokers is higher using Bach model, therefore P value refers to superiority of Bach model relative to the new model.