Table 1.
Estimated casualties from nuclear detonation modeling for trauma only, radiation only injury, and combined injury (radiation plus trauma).
| Injury Type | Category | Compositea | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
| ||||
| 50% | 85% | 95% | ||
| Trauma (injury severity score) | Mild (1–9) | 20,000 | 53,000 | 80,000 |
| Moderate (10–14) | 34,000 | 118,000 | 121,000 | |
| Severe (>15) | 14,000 | 63,000 | 143,000 | |
| Radiation only injury (radiation dose) | Mild 0.75–1.49 Gy | 4,000 | 23,000 | 72,000 |
| Moderate 1.5–5.29 Gy | 6,000 | 25,000 | 41,000 | |
| Severe 5.3–8.3 Gy | 3,000 | 6,000 | 12,000 | |
| Expectant >8.3 Gy | 5,000 | 16,000 | 47,000 | |
| Combined injury (radiation dose > 1.5 Gy) | Trauma and/or mild-severe burn | 2,000 | 20,000 | 45,000 |
a
The values in this table are estimates used for planning purposes and are derived from 185 different scenarios with various nuclear detonation yields (0.1–10 kT) in various cities under various conditions. Because of the range of possibilities, casualty numbers can vary by factors of 5 to ≥10 among cities and among detonation locations within cities. The percentiles used represent a mid-range (50th percentile), a moderately-high (85th percentile), and an estimate for a high-consequence scenario (95th percentile) (adapted from Knebel et al. 2011).