Fig. 6.

a) Upper panel: these are the variational free energy approximations to log model evidence for the 15 models covering changes in one or more synaptic parameters before and after seizure onset. Lower panel: this shows the corresponding posterior probability over models and identifies a single model with almost 100% posterior confidence. b) Changes (across consecutive windows, for each of the three seizures) in the synaptic parameters that were allowed to change in the winning model. Changes are shown in terms of log scaling to clarify the profile of changes over time. Each window corresponds to 1 s. The blue and the green lines report the intrinsic inhibition of the primary and secondary sources respectively and the grey areas represent the 90% confidence intervals.