Table 1.

Probabilities: decision tree

	Value in model (%)	Alpha	Beta	Distribution in PSA	References
Antibiotics prescribed at index consultation
Current practice	59	5,455	3,742	Beta	Huang [5], Little [7]
GP plus CRP	39	1,977	3,095	Beta	Huang [5], Little [7]
Practice nurse plus CRP	41	23	33	Beta	Cals [10]
GP plus CRP and communication training	35	897	1,636	Beta	Cals [6], Little [7]
Antibiotics prescription within 28 days of index
Current practice	38	349	571	Beta	Huang [5]
GP plus CRP	32	322	680	Beta	Huang [5]
Practice nurse plus CRP	46	26	30	Beta	Cals [10]
GP plus CRP and communication training	38%	76	125	Beta	Cals [6]
Antibiotics prescribed for subsequent incidents of RTIs after 28 days
Current practice	36	63	113	Beta	Cals [9]
GP plus CRP	31	62	141	Beta	Cals [9]
Practice nurse plus CRP	31	62	141	Beta	Cals [9]
GP plus CRP and communication training	26	47	131	Beta	Cals [9]

Adverse events	Value in model (%)	Upper (%)	Lower (%)	Distribution in PSA	References
Anaphylactic reaction to penicillin	0.05	0.1	0.0025	Beta	BNF [11]
Death due to anaphylactic shock	10	20	5	Beta	NICE [1]
Complications with antibiotics	1.2	1.5	0.9	Beta	NICE [1]
Complications no antibiotics	4.7	5.9	3.6	Beta	NICE [1]

BNF British National Formulary, CRP C-reactive protein, GP general practitioner, NICE National Institute for Health and Care Excellence, PSA probabilistic sensitivity analysis, RTIs respiratory tract infections