Table 1.

Mean and quantiles (2.5th and 97.5th) of the posterior distribution of values estimated for the Pinner model⁹ and the SIR-type model for the 2009 meningitis outbreak in Katsina State, Nigeria

	Pinner model9	SIR-type model
Epidemic size	26 531 (26 041, 27 095)	21 742 (21 456, 22 079)
Reporting rate from MSF-reinforced surveillance	0.778 (0.76, 0.79)	0.936 (0.92, 0.95)
Mean WHO reporting rate	0.430 (0.42, 0.44)	0.538 (0.52, 0.55)
Standard deviation for WHO reporting rate	0.215 (0.20, 0.23)	0.253 (0.24, 0.26)
% cases averted	4.1 (1.9, 6.2)	11.7 (8.6, 14.9)

MSF: Médicines Sans Frontières; SIR: susceptible–infectious–recovered.