Table 1. Decision tree model inputs in a simulated study of the effect of influenza and influenza vaccination on the risk of acquiring GBS*.
| Parameter | Expected value (95% CI) | Range of values modeled in sensitivity analyses | References† |
|---|---|---|---|
| Relative risk for GBS from influenza vaccination |
1.52 (1.17–1.99) |
Fixed |
(11), online Technical Appendix Table 1 |
| Relative risk for GBS from influenza illness |
15.81 (10.28–24.32) |
Fixed |
(11), online Technical Appendix Table 1 |
| Joint risk of influenza vaccination and influenza illness |
17.33 (additive) |
15.81 (subadditive) to 24.03 (multiplicative) |
No available data |
| GBS incidence rate |
0.45–3.72 cases/100,000 person years‡ |
0.45 in youngest girls to 3.72 in oldest men |
(23) |
| Influenza illness incidence rate |
10% (base case) |
2%–20% |
See online Technical Appendix Table 2 |
| Vaccine effectiveness | 20%–80% | (3, 25–27) | |
| <65 y of age | 0.61 (0.30–0.52) | ||
| >65 y of age | 0.50 (0.27–0.91) |
*GBS, Guillain-Barré syndrome. †The online Technical Appendix is available at http://wwwnc.cdc.gov/EID/article/2/21/13-1879-Techapp1.pdf. ‡Depending on age and sex.