Table 1.

Estimates of modeled variables

Description	Base	Low	High
Cost (2010 US$)
Cost of cancer	$49,523	$10,522	$52,620
Cost of surveillance endoscopy	$932	$350	$1,100
Cost of surgical morbidity	$35,870	$17,230	$70,934
Cost of cancer palliation	$1,652	$1,000	$5,066
Cost of RFAa	$22,818	$10,638	$45,600
Cost of esophagectomy	$24,994	$10,000	$40,000
Cost of generic PPI (annually)	$360	$76	$700
Cost of bone fracture	$11,000	$7,800	$19,000
Cost of C. difficile treatmentb	$120	$60	$1,200
Cost of complicated C. difficile	$10,000	$5,000	$26,338
Discount rate	0.03	0.00	0.05
Transition rates
ND BE to LGD	0.03	0.01	0.08
ND BE to HGD	0.0055	0.0028	0.07
ND BE to cancer	0.0035	0.002	0.01
LGD to ND BE	0.50	0.45	0.80
LGD to HGD	0.1	0.01	0.2
LGD to cancer	0.015	0.005	0.09
HGD to cancerc	0.06	0.05	1.0
HGD to ND BE post-RFA	0.94	0.88	0.97
Mortality in unresectable cancer	0.9	0.8	1
Mortality from other causes	Varies with age
Efficacy (proportion of EAC cases prevented)
PPIs	0.50	0	100
Complications of therapy
Mortality from EGD	0.000021	0	0.00005
Mortality from esophagectomy	0.05	0.025	0.1
Morbidity from esophagectomy	0.15	0.05	0.4
Morbidity from esophagectomy after perforation	0.2	0.1	0.5
Perforation with RFA	0.0005	0.0001	0.001
Stricture with RFA	0.025	0.01	0.05
Rate of fractures in PPI users	0.00014	0.0001	0.0009
Rate of fractures in nonusers	0.0001	0.00005	0.00015
Rate of C. difficile in PPI users	0.00018	0.0001	0.00038
Rate of C. difficile in nonusers	0.00008	0.00005	0.0001
Proportion of complicated C difficile infectionsd	0.05	0.025	0.1
Utilities
Utility of BE without dysplasia	1	0.79	1
Utility of LGD	1	0.8	1
Utility of HGD	0.9	0.6	1
Utility after RFA	0.95	0.6	1
Utility after esophagectomy	0.8	0	1
Utility of cancer	0.5	0	1
Utility of fracture	0.79	0.7	0.95
Utility of C. difficile	0.998	0.997	0.999
Utility of complicated C. difficile	0.88	0.8	0.95

^aRepresents cost of three RFA sessions

^b14-day course of metronidazole and/or vancomycin

^cBase rate for HGD to cancer based on the progression rate of non-responders to RFA

^dProportion of community-acquired C. difficile cases resulting in hospitalization