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. 2014 Dec 24;14:3. doi: 10.1186/s12862-014-0272-2

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© Zinder et al.; licensee BioMed Central. 2014

This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly credited. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver (http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

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Correlation between Growth, Incidence, Immigration and Emigration. Seasonal incidence profiles (Figure 3B) in each community, are used to identify gross periods of growth, decline, and to estimate the monthly % of the yearly incidence during six month periods, averaged across multiple years. Alternative seasonal migration models, partitioning the year into two, and centered on consecutive months (Jan-May) were parameterized using the MCMC. The number of stochastically mapped migration events between each pair of locations was counted in each of the six month long partitions. (A) Medians (black) and samples (gray) of the fraction of the total emigration events from a location during a six month long period, vs. the fraction of the yearly incidence in the corresponding six month period in the source location. (B) The fraction of the total emigration events from a location during a six month long period, vs. the fraction of the yearly positive growth in the corresponding six month period in the source location. (C) The fraction of the total immigration events to a location during a six month long period, vs. the fraction of the yearly incidence in the corresponding six month period in the destination location. (D) The fraction of the total immigration events to a location during a six month long period, vs. the fraction of the yearly positive growth in the corresponding six month period in the destination location.