Table 1.

Parameter descriptions, values, distributions, and sources.

Parameter		Point estimate	Distribution	Reference
Infectious perioda	1/δ	3.8 days	Normalb	Cauchemez et al. (2004)
Secondary attack rate	θ	0.147	Truncated normalc,d	Longini et al. (1982)
Contact rate	c	13.4 contacts/day	Empirical	Mossong et al. (2008)
Vaccine efficacy	εV	0.95	Betae	Belshe et al. (1998)
Antiviral treatment efficacy	εT	0.808	Betaf	Halloran et al. (2007)
Proportion of infected individuals hospitalized	pH	0.005	Betag	Sullivan et al. (1993), Thompson et al. (2003, 2004)

SD, standard deviation.

^a1/recovery rate.

^bStandard deviation = 0.4.

^cAll values greater than 0.

^dStandard deviation = 0.037.

^eFrom $1-\frac{\text{Beta}(7,163)}{\text{Beta}(64,468)}$

^fFrom $1-\frac{\text{Beta}(4,176)}{\text{beta}(22,168)}$

^gFrom $\frac{[\text{Beta}(1441,14687)/(1441/16128)](167812/226545805)}{\text{Beta}(120,694)}$