Country Specific Model Fits During 5 Months 3/22 – 8/22 of the 2014 Epidemic.
These graphs show average simulated cumulative Ebola virus cases versus time (gray solid curve) for the community size C that best fits the reported WHO data for each country (filled black circles) from March 22, 2014 to August 22, 2014 while all other parameters were held constant. For all simulations, the household size H=16, R0H=1.8 and R0C=0.55. For Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia, best fits were found for community sizes C={9,33,51}, respectively. Simulation results of cumulative Ebola cases results are shown as mean ± standard error for 100 simulations. The effective reproductive number Reon the simulation day corresponding to August 22nd is provided as mean ± standard deviation. In Fig. 6, the parameters generating these fits will be referred to as “Guinean-type outbreak parameters”, “Sierra-Leonean-type outbreak parameters”, and “Liberian-type outbreak parameters”, respectively.