Official websites use .gov
A
.gov website belongs to an official
government organization in the United States.
Secure .gov websites use HTTPS
A lock (
) or https:// means you've safely
connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive
information only on official, secure websites.
Accuracy of prediction in EFFECT-2 sample.
| Prediction method | AUC or c-statistic | Brier Score |
|---|---|---|
| Regression tree | 0.683 | 0.2152 |
| Bagged regression tree | 0.733 | 0.2079 |
| Random forest | 0.751 | 0.1959 |
| Boosted regression tree (depth 1) | 0.752 | 0.2049 |
| Boosted regression tree (depth 2) | 0.768 | 0.1962 |
| Boosted regression tree (depth 3) | 0.772 | 0.1933 |
| Boosted regression tree (depth 4) | 0.774 | 0.1918 |
| Logistic regression (full model) | 0.780 | 0.1861 |
| Logistic regression (simple model) | 0.766 | 0.1914 |
