Table 3. Multistate capture-mark-recapture (CMR) models of the Peromyscus leucopus mice.
| Model ID | Model Structure | Par | Parameter Model Structure | AICc | Δ AICc | Weights | N | Deviance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E01 | p(Bb+x+Bb:x+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | φ | a+m | 3791.5 | 0.0 | 0.490 | 31 | 1955.0 |
| F01 | p(Bb+x+Bb:x+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | φ | Bb+x+Bb:x+a+m | 3794.2 | 2.7 | 0.129 | 34 | 1951.4 |
| F02 | p(Bb+x+Bb:x+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | φ | a+m+Prev+a:Prev | 3795.0 | 3.5 | 0.085 | 35 | 1950.2 |
| F03 | p(Bb+x+Bb:x+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | φ | a+m+Blood+a:Blood | 3795.4 | 3.9 | 0.069 | 35 | 1950.6 |
| F04 | p(Bb+x+Bb:x+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | φ | a+m+Tick.m+a:Tick.m | 3795.9 | 4.4 | 0.054 | 35 | 1951.1 |
| F05 | p(Bb+x+Bb:x+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | φ | s+Bb+s:Bb+a+m | 3796.0 | 4.5 | 0.051 | 34 | 1953.3 |
| F06 | p(Bb+x+Bb:x+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | φ | s+x+s:x+a+m | 3796.2 | 4.7 | 0.048 | 34 | 1953.4 |
| F07 | p(Bb+x+Bb:x+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | φ | s*Bb*x-s:Bb:x+a+m | 3799.3 | 7.8 | 0.010 | 37 | 1950.3 |
| F08 | p(Bb+x+Bb:x+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | φ | s*Bb*x+a+m | 3800.5 | 8.9 | 0.006 | 38 | 1949.4 |
| E01 | φ(a+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | p | Bb+x+Bb:x+m | 3791.5 | 0.0 | 0.490 | 31 | 1955.0 |
| E02 | φ(a+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | p | s+Bb+x+s:Bb+s:x+Bb:x+m | 3797.2 | 5.7 | 0.028 | 34 | 1954.5 |
| E03 | φ(a+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | p | s+Bb+x+s:Bb+s:x+Bb:x+s:Bb:x+m | 3798.1 | 6.6 | 0.018 | 35 | 1953.3 |
| E04 | φ(a+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | p | s+Bb+s:Bb+m | 3801.2 | 9.7 | 0.004 | 31 | 1964.6 |
| D01 | φ(a+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | p | m | 3802.6 | 11.0 | 0.002 | 28 | 1972.2 |
| E05 | φ(a+m) β(s+a+m+y) α(Bb) δ(.) | p | s+x+s:x+m | 3805.6 | 14.0 | 0.000 | 31 | 1969.0 |
| D01 | φ(a+m) p(m) α(Bb) δ(.) | β | s+a+m+y | 3802.6 | 11.0 | 0.002 | 28 | 1972.2 |
| D02 | φ(a+m) p(m) α(Bb) δ(.) | β | s+x+s:x+BIN+s:BIN+m+y | 3802.6 | 11.1 | 0.002 | 29 | 1970.2 |
| D03 | φ(a+m) p(m) α(Bb) δ(.) | β | s+BIN+s:BIN+m | 3804.8 | 13.3 | 0.001 | 24 | 1982.7 |
| D04 | φ(a+m) p(m) α(Bb) δ(.) | β | s+nymph+s:nymph+m | 3808.1 | 16.6 | 0.000 | 24 | 1985.9 |
| D05 | φ(a+m) p(m) α(Bb) δ(.) | β | s+x+s:x+a+m | 3813.4 | 21.9 | 0.000 | 27 | 1985.1 |
| D06 | φ(a+m) p(m) α(Bb) δ(.) | β | s+a+m+y+a:y | 3815.1 | 23.6 | 0.000 | 37 | 1966.2 |
| A01 | φ(a+m) p(m) α(Bb) δ(.) | β | s+a+m | 3815.3 | 23.8 | 0.000 | 25 | 1991.1 |
| D07 | φ(a+m) p(m) α(Bb) δ(.) | β | s+Tick.y+s:Tick.y+m | 3817.8 | 26.3 | 0.000 | 24 | 1995.7 |
| D08 | φ(a+m) p(m) α(Bb) δ(.) | β | s+a+m+a:m | 3820.2 | 28.7 | 0.000 | 37 | 1971.3 |
| D09 | φ(a+m) p(m) α(Bb) δ(.) | β | s+a+y+a:y | 3826.5 | 35.0 | 0.000 | 33 | 1985.8 |
| D10 | φ(a+m) p(m) α(Bb) δ(.) | β | s+Tick.m+s:Tick.m+m | 3832.9 | 41.3 | 0.000 | 24 | 2010.7 |
| A01 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) δ(.) | α | Bb | 3815.3 | 23.8 | 0.000 | 25 | 1991.1 |
| C01 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) δ(.) | α | Bb+x | 3817.0 | 25.5 | 0.000 | 26 | 1990.7 |
| C02 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) δ(.) | α | Bb+x+Bb:x | 3819.4 | 27.9 | 0.000 | 27 | 1991.1 |
| C03 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) δ(.) | α | x | 3820.4 | 28.8 | 0.000 | 25 | 1996.2 |
| C04 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) δ(.) | α | Bb+BIN+Bb:BIN | 3822.2 | 30.7 | 0.000 | 27 | 1993.9 |
| C05 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) δ(.) | α | Bb+Blood+Bb:Blood | 3822.9 | 31.4 | 0.000 | 27 | 1994.6 |
| C06 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) δ(.) | α | Bb+Tick.y+Bb:Tick.y | 3824.1 | 32.6 | 0.000 | 27 | 1995.8 |
| A01 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) α(Bb) | δ | . | 3815.3 | 23.8 | 0.000 | 25 | 1991.1 |
| B01 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) α(Bb) | δ | x | 3816.4 | 24.9 | 0.000 | 26 | 1990.1 |
| B02 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) α(Bb) | δ | m | 3823.9 | 32.3 | 0.000 | 29 | 1991.4 |
| B03 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) α(Bb) | δ | a+x | 3827.8 | 36.3 | 0.000 | 29 | 1995.4 |
| B04 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) α(Bb) | δ | a | 3827.8 | 36.3 | 0.000 | 28 | 1997.4 |
| A01 | φ(a+m) p(m) β(s+a+m) α(Bb) δ(.) | 3815.3 | 23.8 | 0.000 | 25 | 1991.1 | ||
| A00 | φ(a+m) p(a+m) β(s+a+m) α(Bb) δ(.) | 3815.9 | 24.4 | 0.000 | 28 | 1985.5 | ||
| A02 | φ(a+m) p(a+m) β(s+a+m) α(.) δ(.) | 3819.3 | 27.7 | 0.000 | 27 | 1991.0 | ||
| A03 | φ(a+m) p(a+m) β(s+a) α(Bb) δ(.) | 3826.6 | 35.1 | 0.000 | 24 | 2004.5 | ||
| A04 | φ(m) p(a+m) β(s+a+m) α(Bb) δ(.) | 3832.0 | 40.5 | 0.000 | 25 | 2007.8 | ||
| A05 | φ(a+m) p(a) β(s+a+m) α(Bb) δ(.) | 3836.0 | 44.5 | 0.000 | 24 | 2013.9 | ||
| A06 | φ(a) p(a+m) β(s+a+m) α(Bb) δ(.) | 3851.4 | 59.8 | 0.000 | 24 | 2029.2 | ||
| A07 | φ(a+m) p(a+m) β(s+m) α(Bb) δ(.) | 3866.5 | 75.0 | 0.000 | 25 | 2042.3 | ||
| G01 | φ(time) p(time) α(.) β(time) δ(.) | 3886.5 | 95.0 | 0.000 | 63 | 1982.9 |
Model selection results from the CMR model with four states: (1) susceptible juveniles, (2) Borrelia burgdorferi-infected juveniles, (3) susceptible adults, and (4) B. burgdorferi-infected adults. There are five CMR parameters: monthly survival rate (φ), recapture rate (p), infection rate (β), developmental rate (α), and delta transition rate (δ). Explanatory factors include: B. burgdorferi infection status (Bb), stage (s), sex (x), area (a), month (m), year (y), monthly area-specific prevalence of B. burgdorferi in the mouse population (Prev), monthly area-specific Ixodes scapularis tick burden in the mouse population (Tick.m), annual area-specific tick burden in the mouse population (Tick.y), annual area-specific tick-induced blood loss in the mouse population (Blood), annual area-specific nymphal burden in the mouse population (nymph), and the annual area-specific burden of infected nymphs (BIN). The structure of the starting model (A00) was based on a priori predictions. Models A01 to A07 were reduced versions of the starting model. The five parameters were modeled in the following sequence: δ transition (models B01 to B04), development (models C01 to C06), infection (models D01 to D10), recapture (models E01 to E05), and survival (models F01 to F08). We used U-CARE to test whether model G01 met the assumptions of the multi-state CMR analysis.