Table 4.
Performance of risk score algorithms (Framingham Stroke Risk Score (FSRS), Stroke Riskometer™ and QStroke) across three validation cohorts (ARCOS, RUSSIA and ROTTERDAM) combined across different thresholds meeting 50%, 70%, 80%, 85% and 90% accuracy
| Algorithm | Subset | 5-year risk | 10-year risk | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Threshold [Accuracy (%)] | Number classified as high risk (%) | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | Threshold [Accuracy (%)] | Number classified as high risk (%) | Sensitivity (%) | Specificity (%) | ||
| FSRS | Males | 4·25 (50) | 2202 (58·6) | 82·49 | 45·02 | 11·3 (50) | 2200 (58·51) | 82·49 | 45·08 |
| 8·6 (70) | 1273 (33·9) | 63·38 | 70·61 | 22 (70) | 1270 (33·78) | 63·38 | 70·70 | ||
| 13 (80) | 807 (21·5) | 53·92 | 83·45 | 32 (80) | 798 (21·22) | 53·72 | 83·73 | ||
| 18 (85) | 538 (14·3) | 46·28 | 90·56 | 42 (85) | 542 (14·41) | 46·48 | 90·47 | ||
| 30 (90) | 245 (6·5) | 35·21 | 97·85 | 65 (90) | 227 (6·04) | 33·80 | 98·19 | ||
| Females | 3·2 (50) | 3190 (55·6) | 78·89 | 47·04 | 8 (50) | 3185 (55·52) | 78·89 | 47·16 | |
| 9·5 (70) | 1801 (31·4) | 55·28 | 71·30 | 23 (70) | 1770 (30·85) | 54·44 | 71·84 | ||
| 19·5 (80) | 1055 (18·4) | 42·04 | 84·33 | 42 (80) | 1064 (18·55) | 42·38 | 84·19 | ||
| 28 (85) | 677 (11·8) | 35·51 | 90·92 | 57 (85) | 672 (11·71) | 35·51 | 91·02 | ||
| 42 (90) | 361 (6·3) | 30·15 | 96·44 | 79 (90) | 304 (5·30) | 29·65 | 97·49 | ||
| Stroke Riskometer™ | Males | 5·7 (50) | 2184 (58·1) | 81·49 | 45·42 | 13 (50) | 2223 (59·12) | 82·90 | 44·50 |
| 14·5 (70) | 1218 (32·4) | 59·56 | 71·71 | 30 (70) | 1225 (32·58) | 61·37 | 71·81 | ||
| 21·5 (80) | 770 (20·5) | 52·31 | 84·37 | 43 (80) | 789 (20·98) | 52·52 | 83·82 | ||
| 27 (85) | 515 (13·7) | 46·48 | 91·30 | 55 (85) | 514 (13·67) | 46·08 | 91·27 | ||
| 45 (90) | 188 (5·0) | 31·79 | 99·08 | 72 (90) | 279 (7·42) | 38·43 | 97·30 | ||
| Females | 4·5 (50) | 3212 (56·0) | 80·07 | 46·75 | 10 (50) | 3219 (56·12) | 80·40 | 46·67 | |
| 13·5 (70) | 1803 (31·4) | 55·61 | 71·33 | 27 (70) | 1787 (31·15) | 56·28 | 71·70 | ||
| 22 (80) | 1069 (18·6) | 44·89 | 84·34 | 45 (80) | 1080 (18·83) | 45·06 | 84·17 | ||
| 29 (85) | 734 (12·8) | 39·03 | 90·20 | 57 (85) | 745 (12·99) | 39·20 | 90·00 | ||
| 45 (90) | 336 (5·9) | 31·66 | 97·08 | 77 (90) | 373 (6·50) | 33·00 | 96·52 | ||
| QStroke | Males | 2·5 (50) | 2130 (56·6) | 73·44 | 45·91 | 6·7 (50) | 2090 (55·59) | 72·43 | 46·98 |
| 5·3 (70) | 910 (24·2) | 26·76 | 76·19 | 13·5 (70) | 912 (24·25) | 26·96 | 76·16 | ||
| 8·6 (80) | 357 (9·5) | 10·06 | 90·59 | 22 (80) | 325 (8·64) | 8·85 | 91·39 | ||
| 14 (85) | 77 (2·0) | 2·21 | 97·98 | 33 (85) | 78 (2·07) | 2·21 | 97·95 | ||
| Females | 2·4 (50) | 3270 (57·0) | 84·25 | 46·13 | 6·3 (50) | 3269 (56·99) | 84·25 | 46·15 | |
| 7·7 (70) | 1806 (31·5) | 59·13 | 71·68 | 19 (70) | 1822 (31·76) | 59·63 | 71·43 | ||
| 23 (80) | 978 (17·1) | 35·85 | 85·08 | 48 (80) | 1012 (17·64) | 36·68 | 84·52 | ||
| 70 (85) | 391 (6·8) | 12·56 | 93·80 | 95 (85) | 422 (7·36) | 13·74 | 93·33 | ||