Table 2.
Total projected TB related outcomes per 1,000 general population, in Indonesia over 20 years
| Intervention | Specific parameter changed 1 | Primary active cases arising in cohort over 20 years 3 | Total projected outcomes related to the primary cases | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter | Pre-intervention | Post-intervention | Death during diagnosis/treatment phase | Cure due to treatment | Secondary cases generated from primary cases | Health system costs | ||
| Baseline | - | - | - | 19 · 27 | 12 · 52 | 0 · 97 | 28 · 87 | $2,641 · 47 |
| Community Education | Patient delay2 | 11% | 6% | 19 · 27 | 12 · 39 | 0 · 99 | 28 · 54 | $2,696 · 70 |
| DOTS expansion for diagnosis | Incorrect Diagnostic Test (in public sector) | 60% | 35% | 19 · 27 | 11 · 90 | 1 · 24 | 27 · 38 | $3,302 · 55 |
| Diagnostic Delay2 (in public sector) | 8% | 0 · 5% | 19 · 27 | 12 · 48 | 0 · 98 | 28 · 71 | $2,670 · 63 | |
| Loss to follow up during Diagnosis (in public sector) | 25% | 14% | 19 · 27 | 12 · 37 | 1 · 03 | 28 · 51 | $2,800 · 83 | |
| DOTS Expansion for Treatment | Incorrect Treatment (in public sector) | 79% | 13% | 19 · 27 | 12 · 02 | 2 · 33 | 27 · 89 | $2,646 · 61 |
| Non specific DOTS Expansion (NTP Strengthening) | Access Government Facility | 43% | 73% | 19 · 27 | 12 · 42 | 0 · 99 | 28 · 62 | $2,764 · 86 |
| Private Sector interventions | Incorrect Diagnostic test (in private sector) | 62% | 36% | 19 · 27 | 11 · 75 | 1 · 33 | 27 · 04 | $3,455 · 53 |
| Diagnostic Delay2 (in private sector) | 11% | 0 · 7% | 19 · 27 | 12 · 46 | 0 · 98 | 28 · 63 | $2,685 · 49 | |
| Loss to follow up during Diagnosis (in private sector) | 25% | 14% | 19 · 27 | 12 · 35 | 1 · 05 | 28 · 46 | $2,823 · 16 | |
| Incorrect Treatment (in private sector) | 77% | 13% | 19 · 27 | 11 · 97 | 2 · 48 | 27 · 79 | $2,647 · 19 | |
| HIV/ ART therapy programmes | HIV (+) Death | 12% | 10% | 19 · 27 | 12 · 52 | 0 · 97 | 28 · 87 | $2,641 · 47 |
| HIV (+) Relapse | 16% | 1% | 19 · 27 | 12 · 52 | 0 · 97 | 28 · 87 | $2,641 · 47 | |
| HIV (+) Reactivation | 3 · 4% | 2% | 19 · 26 | 12 · 52 | 0 · 96 | 28 · 86 | $2,640 · 66 | |
| MDR-TB related interventions | DST performed | 20% | 50% | 19 · 27 | 12 · 52 | 0 · 97 | 28 · 87 | $2,693 · 77 |
| Loss to follow up during MDR Treatment | 22% | 11% | 19 · 27 | 12 · 52 | 0 · 97 | 28 · 87 | $2,642 · 53 | |
Notes: 1See Table 1 for more detail; 2Delay = % with 1 year delay; 3Primary cases are those which would arise from reactivation of pre-existing latent TB infection, or progression from newly acquired infection, but do NOT include cases arising from transmission from the primary cases.
(Change in estimate shown represents change relative to baseline for a change in only one parameter and all others remain at pre-intervention values).