Table 6.
Projected outcomes over 20 years with progressive addition of interventions that improve general TB services plus MDR diagnosis and treatment in Kazakhstan (per 1000 persons from general population)
| Category of intervention | Scenario | Primary active cases arising in cohort over 20 years 1 | Total projected outcomes related to the primary active cases | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Death during diagnosis and treatment phase | Cure due to treatment | Secondary cases generated from primary cases | Health system costs | |||
| Baseline | 15 · 28 | 10 · 05 | 0 · 62 | 22 · 99 | $5,238 · 87 | |
| General Health System Interventions | Improved diagnosis to detect 100% of TB cases in public sector (DS and MDR) | 15 · 28 | 7 · 67 | 1 · 57 | 17 · 07 | $12,292 · 55 |
| Above & improved treatment to achieve 100% cure for DS in public sector | 15 · 28 | 4 · 96 | 8 · 60 | 12 · 22 | $12,354 · 14 | |
| Above & reduced loss to follow up in public sector | 15 · 28 | 2 · 70 | 11 · 53 | 7 · 23 | $16,351 · 62 | |
| MDR-TB related interventions | Above & Improve DST coverage to 100% | 15 · 28 | 2 · 59 | 11 · 72 | 6 · 96 | $18,441 · 46 |
| Above & Improved treatment coverage so that all MDR cases diagnosed get standard MDR therapy | 15 · 28 | 2 · 07 | 12 · 61 | 5 · 66 | $27,327 · 96 | |
| Above & New MDR drugs so treatment outcomes are as good as drug sensitive TB cases | 15 · 28 | 1 · 85 | 13 · 11 | 5 · 41 | $28,513 · 34 | |
1Primary cases are those which would arise from reactivation of pre-existing latent TB infection, or progression from newly acquired infection, but do NOT include cases arising from transmission from the primary cases.