Table 7.

Total projected TB related outcomes per 1,000 population, in Mozambique over 20 years

Interventions	Specific parameter change 1			Primary active cases arising in cohort over 20 years 3	Total projected outcomes related to the primary cases
	Parameter	Pre	Post		Death during diagnosis and treatment phase	Cure due to treatment	Secondary cases generated from primary cases	Health system cost
Baseline	-	-	-	69.82	47.34	2.40	106.05	$2,818.01
Community Education	Patient delay2	11%	6%	69.82	45.97	2.51	104.24	$2,955.56
DOTS expansion for diagnosis	Incorrect Diagnostic Test	60%	35%	69.82	39.57	3.92	94.82	$4,075.36
	Diagnostic Delay2	8%	0.5%	69.82	46.29	2.54	104.44	$2,942.14
	Loss to follow up during diagnosis	25%	14%	69.82	45.47	2.76	103.35	$3,121.12
DOTS Expansion for Treatment	Incorrect Treatment	79%	13%	69.82	47.34	10.00	99.21	$2,920.66
Non specific DOTS Expansion (NTP Strengthening)	Access Government Facility	94.5%	97.5%	69.82	46.96	2.47	105.50	$2,906.57
HIV/ ART therapy programmes	HIV/TB Death rate	12%	10%	69.82	47.34	2.45	106.05	$2,818.01
	HIV/TB Relapse rate	16%	1%	69.82	47.34	2.70	105.93	$2,818.01
	HIV/TB Reactivation rate	3.4%	2%	57.11	39.55	2.01	86.58	$2,326.66
MDR-TB related interventions	DST performed	20%	50%	69.82	47.34	2.41	106.02	$2,986.38
	Loss to follow up during MDR Treatment	22%	11%	69.82	47.34	2.40	106.05	$2,819.07

Notes: ¹See Table 1 for more detail; ²Delay = % with 1 year delay; ³Primary cases are those which would arise from reactivation of pre-existing latent TB infection, or progression from newly acquired infection, but do NOT include cases arising from transmission from the primary cases.

(Change in estimate shown represents change relative to baseline for a change in only one parameter and all others remain at pre-intervention values).