Table 7.
Interventions | Specific parameter change 1 | Primary active cases arising in cohort over 20 years 3 | Total projected outcomes related to the primary cases | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Parameter | Pre | Post | Death during diagnosis and treatment phase | Cure due to treatment | Secondary cases generated from primary cases | Health system cost | ||
Baseline | - | - | - | 69.82 | 47.34 | 2.40 | 106.05 | $2,818.01 |
Community Education | Patient delay2 | 11% | 6% | 69.82 | 45.97 | 2.51 | 104.24 | $2,955.56 |
DOTS expansion for diagnosis | Incorrect Diagnostic Test | 60% | 35% | 69.82 | 39.57 | 3.92 | 94.82 | $4,075.36 |
Diagnostic Delay2 | 8% | 0.5% | 69.82 | 46.29 | 2.54 | 104.44 | $2,942.14 | |
Loss to follow up during diagnosis | 25% | 14% | 69.82 | 45.47 | 2.76 | 103.35 | $3,121.12 | |
DOTS Expansion for Treatment | Incorrect Treatment | 79% | 13% | 69.82 | 47.34 | 10.00 | 99.21 | $2,920.66 |
Non specific DOTS Expansion (NTP Strengthening) | Access Government Facility | 94.5% | 97.5% | 69.82 | 46.96 | 2.47 | 105.50 | $2,906.57 |
HIV/ ART therapy programmes | HIV/TB Death rate | 12% | 10% | 69.82 | 47.34 | 2.45 | 106.05 | $2,818.01 |
HIV/TB Relapse rate | 16% | 1% | 69.82 | 47.34 | 2.70 | 105.93 | $2,818.01 | |
HIV/TB Reactivation rate | 3.4% | 2% | 57.11 | 39.55 | 2.01 | 86.58 | $2,326.66 | |
MDR-TB related interventions | DST performed | 20% | 50% | 69.82 | 47.34 | 2.41 | 106.02 | $2,986.38 |
Loss to follow up during MDR Treatment | 22% | 11% | 69.82 | 47.34 | 2.40 | 106.05 | $2,819.07 |
Notes: 1See Table 1 for more detail; 2Delay = % with 1 year delay; 3Primary cases are those which would arise from reactivation of pre-existing latent TB infection, or progression from newly acquired infection, but do NOT include cases arising from transmission from the primary cases.
(Change in estimate shown represents change relative to baseline for a change in only one parameter and all others remain at pre-intervention values).