Table 8.
Changes in projected TB related outcomes per 1,000 population, in Mozambique over 20 years
| General intervention | Specific parameter changed 1 | Projected changes in outcomes related to the primary active cases | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parameter | Pre | Post | Death during diagnosis and treatment phase | Cure due to treatment | Secondary cases generated from primary cases | Health system costs | |
| Baseline outcomes | - | - | - | 47.34 | 2.40 | 106.05 | $2,818.01 |
| Community Education | Patient delay2 | 11% | 6% | −1.37 | 0.11 | −1.82 | 137.55 |
| DOTS expansion for diagnosis | Incorrect Diagnostic Test | 60% | 35% | −7.77 | 1.52 | −11.23 | 1257.35 |
| Diagnostic Delay2 | 8% | 0.5% | −1.05 | 0.14 | −1.61 | 124.13 | |
| Drop out during Diagnosis | 25% | 14% | −1.87 | 0.37 | −2.71 | 303.11 | |
| DOTS Expansion for Treatment | Incorrect Treatment | 79% | 13% | 0.00 | 7.61 | −6.84 | 102.65 |
| Non specific DOTS Expansion (NTP Strengthening) | Access Government Facility | 94.5% | 97.5% | −0.38 | 0.08 | −0.56 | 88.57 |
| HIV/ ART therapy programmes | HIV/TB Death rate | 12% | 10% | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| HIV/TB Relapse rate | 16% | 1% | 0.00 | 0.30 | −0.12 | 0.00 | |
| HIV/TB Reactivation rate | 3.4% | 2% | −7.79 | −0.39 | −19.47 | −491.35 | |
| MDR-TB related interventions | DST performed | 20% | 50% | 0.00 | 0.02 | −0.03 | 168.37 |
| Loss to follow up during MDR Treatment | 22% | 11% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.06 | |
Notes: 1See Table 1 for more detail; 2Delay = % with 1 year delay.
(Change in estimate shown represents change relative to baseline for a change in only one parameter and all others remain at pre-intervention values).