Table 4. AUC of prediction results using different adopter features within t early hours.

Prediction features include the number of followers (fol), the number of tweets (twt), the diversity of topical interests of adopters (H ₁), and the number of early adopters (n). The threshold is expressed as a top percentile of most popular hashtags that are deemed viral for evaluation purposes. Best results for each column are bolded.

Threshold	50%			10%			1%			0.1%
t (hours)	1	6	24	1	6	24	1	6	24	1	6	24
twt	0.57	0.58	0.59	0.62	0.63	0.64	0.67	0.68	0.68	0.70	0.71	0.72
fol	0.57	0.58	0.59	0.62	0.64	0.65	0.67	0.69	0.70	0.74	0.75	0.76
H 1	0.55	0.55	0.55	0.58	0.58	0.58	0.60	0.60	0.61	0.63	0.63	0.64
n	0.64	0.68	0.71	0.75	0.79	0.84	0.82	0.86	0.90	0.86	0.89	0.91
n + twt †	0.64	0.68	0.71	0.75	0.80	0.84	0.83	0.87	0.90	0.87	0.89	0.92
n + fol †	0.65	0.68	0.72	0.76	0.80	0.85	0.83	0.87	0.90	0.87	0.89	0.92
n + H 1 †	0.64	0.68	0.71	0.75	0.80	0.85	0.83	0.86	0.90	0.86	0.89	0.92

† A linear combination with coefficients determined by regression fitting using least squared error.