Accuracy statistics for the dengue models shown in figure 1 with (a) one, (b) five and (c) a maximum of 10 variables. Kappa, kappa index of agreement; %correct, overall correct predictions (%); %PPV, positive predictive value (=consumer's accuracy for presence sites) (%); %NPV, negative predictive value (=consumer's accuracy for pseudo-absence sites) (%); %Flse +ves, false-positive predictions (%); %Flse −ves, false-negative predictions (%); sens., sensitivity; spec., specificity; TSS, true skill statistic; AUC, area under curve (ROC); AICc, corrected Akaike information criterion; nvar, mean number of variables used in models (AICc-dependent); n, total number of models in each series. In brackets after each mean = 1 standard deviation.