Table 3.

Accuracy statistics for dengue models using the HadCM3 climate data. B1a and A1F are alternative low and high emissions scenarios of the HadCM3 series of GCMs. Symbols are as in table 1. Results refer to the climate of the 1980s as modelled by the two scenarios, which are not very different at this point in time. NA, not applicable.

	kappa	%correct	%PPV	%NPV	%Flse +ves	%Flse −ves	sens.	spec.	TSS	AUC	AICc	nvar	n
B1a scenario
Aedes aegypti	0.475 (0.052)	73.75 (2.60)	74.83 (3.37)	74.49 (3.32)	13.10 (1.82)	13.14 (1.81)	0.734 (0.034)	0.733 (0.037)	0.467 (0.050)	0.806 (0.028)	NA	4.85 (1.14)	100
Aedes albopictus	0.646 (0.051)	82.31 (2.58)	90.14 (2.96)	76.33 (5.97)	12.80 (3.19)	4.88 (1.51)	0.897 (0.031)	0.74 (0.063)	0.638 (0.070)	0.896 (0.030)	NA	5.65 (2.26)	100
dengue without vectors	0.397 (0.063)	69.83 (3.17)	84.70 (3.64)	56.77 (4.23)	22.09 (2.40)	8.07 (2.37)	0.834 (0.048)	0.555 (0.047)	0.389 (0.067)	0.757 (0.039)	724.5 (22.9)	3.5 (0.92)	100
dengue with vectors	0.427 (0.050)	71.32 (2.50)	82.32 (3.07)	61.94 (3.66)	19.61 (1.87)	9.06 (1.59)	0.814 (0.032)	0.605 (0.036)	0.419 (0.048)	0.771 (0.029)	703.0 (22.1)	3.27 (1.24)	100
A1F scenario
Aedes aegypti	0.47 (0.05)	73.49 (2.50)	75.12 (4.11)	73.63 (2.65)	13.47 (1.50)	13.03 (2.08)	0.737 (0.041)	0.726 (0.031)	0.463 (0.051)	0.804 (0.026)	NA	4.64 (1.11)	100
Aedes albopictus	0.657 (0.053)	82.84 (2.65)	89.76 (2.44)	77.84 (5.82)	12.26 (3.44)	4.89 (1.34)	0.897 (0.028)	0.751 (0.070)	0.648 (0.075)	0.897 (0.033)	NA	5.8 (2.40)	100
dengue without vectors	0.389 (0.072)	69.43 (3.59)	84.38 (4.57)	56.88 (4.81)	22.28 (2.79)	8.28 (2.47)	0.829 (0.049)	0.551 (0.056)	0.380 (0.074)	0.755 (0.039)	724.8 (22.8)	3.49 (1.07)	100
dengue with vectors	0.443 (0.054)	72.15 (2.67)	83.96 (3.04)	62.40 (3.88)	19.46 (2.16)	8.37 (1.65)	0.827 (0.033)	0.608 (0.043)	0.435 (0.054)	0.78 (0.030)	696.3 (23.8)	3.37 (1.39)	100