Table 7.

Sensitivity analysis for uncertainties in systolic BP and TC and their measurement. The three hypothetical BPs given are adjusted by +/- 11% and the TCs by +/- 15%. A 'normal' BP of 135 mmHg systolic is assumed for the TC analysis and a 'normal' cholesterol of 5.5 mmol/l is taken for the BP analysis. Values for the predicted survival at 20 years are given.

		Systolic BP mmHg (95% CI)			TC mmol/l (95% CI)
		120 (107 – 133)	140 (125 – 155)	160 (142 – 178)	4.0 (3.4 – 4.6)	6.0 (5.1 – 6.9)	8.0 (6.8 – 9.2)
35 year old man	S	94.2 – 92.9	93.4 – 90.9	92.2 – 88.0	94.0 – 93.3	93.0 – 91.5	91.6 – 89.0
	NS	96.0 – 95.5	95.7 – 94.6	95.2 – 93.3	95.8 – 95.6	95.5 – 94.9	95.0 – 93.9
35 year-old woman	S	95.3 – 95.3	95.3 – 95.2	95.3 – 95.1	95.4 – 95.3	95.3 – 95.2	95.2 – 94.9
	NS	96.9 – 96.9	96.9 – 96.8	96.9 – 96.8	96.9 – 96.9	96.9 – 96.9	96.9 – 96.8
50 year old man	S	73.0 – 68.3	69.9 – 63.0	66.2 – 56.7	72.8 – 70.1	68.9 – 64.0	64.3 – 57.8
	NS	84.9 – 82.4	83.3 – 79.2	81.2 – 74.8	84.7 – 83.4	82.8 – 79.9	80.1 – 75.5
50 year-old woman	S	79.6 – 79.3	79.4 – 78.7	79.1 – 77.7	79.9 – 79.6	79.4 – 78.5	78.5 – 76.7
	NS	89.1 – 89.0	89.0 – 88.8	88.9 – 88.5	89.2 – 89.1	89.0 – 88.7	88.7 – 88.0
65 year old man	S	16.8 – 14.7	15.4 – 12.7	13.9 – 10.6	16.8 – 15.5	14.9 – 13.1	13.2 – 11.2
	NS	50.3 – 46.4	47.8 – 42.3	44.8 – 37.5	50.3 – 48.8	47.0 – 43.0	43.2 – 38.2
65 year-old woman	S	37.1 – 36.7	36.9 – 36.0	36.5 – 35.1	37.7 – 37.2	36.9 – 35.6	35.7 – 33.7
	NS	63.6 – 63.3	63.5 – 62.8	63.2 – 62.0	64.0 – 63.7	63.5 – 62.5	62.6 – 60.7

S = Smoker NS = Non-smoker