Table 3.
Generalized Impact Fraction of decrease in unfavorable levels of Health Metric Score* by age and sex
| Scenario 1† | Scenario 2‡ | Scenario 3§ | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baseline age, years | GIF (95% SI) | Prev, no|| | GIF (95% SI) | Prev, no|| | GIF (95% SI) | Prev, no|| |
| Men | ||||||
| 30 – 39 | 15.8 (9.3, 22.0) | 32 | 26.4 (15.4, 36.7) | 53 | 52.8 (30.9, 73.4) | 106 |
| 40 – 49 | 15.3 (9.8, 20.4) | 64 | 25.5 (16.3, 34.0) | 106 | 51.1 (32.6, 67.9) | 213 |
| 50 – 59 | 19.8 (15.4, 23.9) | 185 | 33.0 (25.7, 39.9) | 308 | 66.0 (51.4, 79.7) | 616 |
| 60 – 69 | 8.3 (2.4, 13.7) | 153 | 13.9 (4.1, 22.8) | 256 | 27.8 (8.2, 45.6) | 512 |
| 70 – 79 | 11.4 (5.3, 16.8) | 406 | 18.9 (8.9, 28.0) | 673 | 37.9 (17.8, 56.1) | 1350 |
| Overall** | 13.7 (11.2, 16.2) | 105 | 22.9 (18.6, 27.0) | 175 | 45.8 (37.3, 53.9) | 351 |
| Women | ||||||
| 30 – 39 | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA | NA |
| 40 – 49 | 25.5 (20.8, 28.9) | 30 | 42.5 (34.6, 48.2) | 49 | 85.1 (69.2, 96.3) | 99 |
| 50 – 59 | 19.4 (13.2, 25.0) | 76 | 32.4 (22.0, 41.7) | 128 | 64.8 (44.0, 83.5) | 256 |
| 60 – 69 | 11.3 (3.3, 18.4) | 105 | 18.8 (5.5, 30.6) | 175 | 37.5 (11.0, 61.3) | 350 |
| 70 – 79 | 15.6 (9.0, 21.5) | 281 | 26.0 (15.0, 35.9) | 468 | 52.0 (30.1, 71.7) | 936 |
| Overall** | 15.9 (12.1, 19.4) | 59 | 26.5 (20.1, 32.3) | 99 | 53.1 (40.3, 64.6) | 197 |
GIF, generalized impact fraction in percent; SI, 2.5 % to 97.5% simulation interval from 10,000 bootstrapped data sets.
*Health Metric Score is defined as the number of ideal health levels for six cardiovascular disease risk factors.
1) Body Mass Index < 25 kg/m2.
2) Total cholesterol < 5.18 mmol/l (<200 mg/dl).
3) Systolic blood pressure < 120 mmHg and diastolic blood pressure < 80 mmHg.
4) Non-smokers.
5) Moderate physical activity ≥ 3 hours per week or vigorous physical activity ≥ 1 hours per week.
6) Non – Diabetes.
†30% decrease in subjects with levels ≤3, with movement of this 30% to the group with ideal scores (≥4).
‡50% decrease in subjects with levels ≤3, with movement of this 50% to the group with ideal scores (≥4).
§100% decrease in subjects with levels ≤3, with movement of this 100% to the group with ideal scores (≥4).
||The preventable number of MIs per 100,000 person-years.
**The overall GIF using the case-load weighted sum method.
The Tromsø Study 1994–2008.