TABLE 3—

Simulation Results (n = 1000) for Normal Health Progression and Lifestyle Program in 2012 and 2027: New York State, 2007 and 2012

	Smoking		BMI ≥ 25		Diabetes		MI		Stroke
Variable	%	P	%	P	%	P	%	P	%	P
New York City
2012
Actual normal progression (n = 1657)	14.1		62.0		12.8		4.1		3.8
Simulated normal progression	14.6	.721	64.0	.302	12.0	.546	2.8	.082	2.3	.034
Simulated lifestyle program	7.9	< .001	39	< .001	10.7	.359	3.1	.691	2.6	.664
2027
Simulated normal progression	13.8		70.9		29.4		5.7		4.7
Simulated lifestyle program	7.4	< .001	51.0	< .001	27.7	.4	4.6	.266	4.0	.443
Rochester
2012
Actual normal progression (n = 354)	20.4		64.0		12.9		6.0		5.2
Simulated normal progression	23.8	.191	69.6	.052	11.2	.391	3.3	.026	2.9	.043
Simulated lifestyle program	11.3	< .001	40.8	< .001	12	.576	4.1	.343	2.1	.252
2027
Simulated normal progression	23.0		72.4		32.7		7.2		5.3
Simulated lifestyle program	10.9	< .001	55.0	< .001	28.9	.066	6.6	.597	4.0	.167
Suffolk/Nassau
2012
Actual normal progression (n = 712)	15.9		65.8		6.3		3.7		1.6
Simulated normal progression	17.6	.355	65.4	.864	10.6	.002	3.0	.424	2.0	.543
Simulated lifestyle program	8.7	< .001	41.2	< .001	9.7	.505	2.9	.895	1.7	.619
2027
Simulated normal progression	17.4		68.8		29.9		6.3		3.7
Simulated lifestyle program	8.8	< .001	54.9	< .001	25.6	.032	5.6	.508	3.2	.54
Buffalo
2012
Actual normal progression (n = 377)	21.7		69.7		12.7		6.0		1.4
Simulated normal progression	21.3	.872	66.3	.231	13.4	.732	3.1	.013	4.9	.003
Simulated lifestyle program	10.5	< .001	38.8	< .001	12.6	.595	2.8	.692	4.9	>.992
2027
Simulated normal progression	20.5		68.5		31.9		6.5		6.7
Simulated lifestyle program	10.2	< .001	53.3	< .001	27.7	.04	5.2	.215	6.3	.717

Note. BMI = body mass index (calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared); MI = myocardial infarction.