Table 1. Baseline characteristics of recipients in the derivation and validation cohorts.
| ISHLT | NTTD | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DC | IVC | TVC | |||||
| n = 41,780 | n = 8,569 | p Value | n = 6,276 | p Value | n = 1,285 | p Value | |
| Demographic data | |||||||
| Age (years) | 45 54 60 | 45 54 60 | 0.430 | 45 54 61 | 0.406 | 43 52 58 | 0.001 |
| Female gender | 8,463 (20%) | 1,827 (21%) | 0.026 | 1,485 (24%) | 0.001 | 286 (22%) | 0.079 |
| Height (cm) | 168 174 180 | 168 175 180 | 0.350 | 168 175 180 | 0.018 | 170 176 182 | 0.001 |
| Weight (kg) | 66 77 88 | 67 77 88 | 0.470 | 69 80 91 | 0.001 | 66 77 86 | 0.085 |
| Ischemic cardiomyopathy | 17,670 (42%) | 3,630 (42%) | 0.990 | 2,166 (35%) | 0.001 | 450 (36%) | 0.001 |
| Non-ischemic cardiomyopathy | 19,265 (46%) | 3,946 (46%) | 0.918 | 3,213 (51%) | 0.001 | 613 (50%) | 0.005 |
| Congenital | 867 (2%) | 180 (2%) | 0.881 | 203 (3%) | 0.001 | 49 (4%) | 0.001 |
| Graft failure | 846 (2%) | 168 (2%) | 0.699 | 151 (2%) | 0.001 | 5 (0%) | 0.001 |
| Diabetes mellitus # | 4,802 (20%) | 1,006 (21%) | 0.750 | 1,059 (25%) | 0.001 | 82 (11%) | 0.001 |
| Hypertension † | 9,185 (38%) | 1,904 (38%) | 0.990 | 1,526 (44%) | 0.001 | 141 (19%) | 0.001 |
| Infection within two weeks ‡ | 2,326 (10%) | 493 (10%) | 0.600 | 410 (10%) | 0.670 | 40 (5%) | 0.001 |
| Antiarrhythmic drugs prior to transplant | 8,472 (37%) | 1,755 (37%) | 0.860 | 1,255 (39%) | 0.007 | 263 (36%) | 0.800 |
| Amiodarone prior to transplant | 5,787 (26%) | 1,223 (26%) | 0.410 | 993 (32%) | 0.001 | 172 (23%) | 0.190 |
| Previous blood transfusion | 7,574 (51%) | 1,569 (51%) | 0.360 | 966 (86%) | 0.001 | ||
| Previously transplanted* | 1,160 (3%) | 224 (3%) | 0.910 | 200 (3%) | 0.300 | 5 (0%) | 0.001 |
| Previous cardiac surgery | 6,594 (28%) | 1,371 (28%) | 0.410 | 2,465 (60%) | 0.001 | 305 (24%) | 0.001 |
| ICU | 9,679 (38%) | 1,989 (38%) | 0.470 | 1,043 (26%) | 0.001 | 97 (12%) | 0.001 |
| Mechanical ventilation | 731 (3%) | 151 (3%) | 0.980 | 138 (3%) | 0.430 | ||
| ECMO | 106 (0%) | 23 (0%) | 0.840 | 39 (1%) | 0.001 | ||
| Ventricular assist device | 4,367 (26%) | 902 (26%) | 0.830 | 1,429 (34%) | 0.001 | ||
| Transplant era | 0.200 | 0.001 | |||||
| 1991–1995 | 6,029 (14%) | 1,259 (15%) | |||||
| 1996–2000 | 14,804 (35%) | 2,949 (34%) | 450 (35%) | ||||
| 2001–2005 | 13,078 (31%) | 2,682 (31%) | 451 (35%) | ||||
| 2006–2010 | 7,869 (19%) | 1,679 (20%) | 6,276 (100%) | 384 (30%) | |||
| Hemodynamic status | |||||||
| PVR (wood units) | 1.4 2.1 3.2 | 1.5 2.2 3.2 | 0.140 | 1.4 2.2 3.1 | 0.620 | 1.8 2.6 3.7 | 0.001 |
| SPP (mmHg) | 33 42 54 | 33 42 54 | 0.930 | 33 41 52 | 0.001 | ||
| Laboratory values | |||||||
| Creatinine (μmol/l) | 88 106 132 | 88 106 132 | 0.910 | 85 106 132 | 0.001 | 88 103 125 | 0.001 |
| Serum bilirubin (mg/dl) | 0.60 0.80 1.30 | 0.60 0.80 1.30 | 0.470 | 0.50 0.80 1.30 | 0.003 | 0.71 1.12 1.71 | 0.001 |
| Immunology status | |||||||
| PRA > 10% | 1,841 (8%) | 370 (8%) | 0.590 | 402 (11%) | 0.001 | 87 (7%) | 0.047 |
| HLA-DR | 0.520 | 0.086 | 0.004 | ||||
| 0 mismatch | 720 (4%) | 163 (4%) | 142 (5%) | 19 (3%) | |||
| 1 mismatch | 7,324 (41%) | 1,496 (40%) | 1,169 (40%) | 339 (46%) | |||
| 2 mismatches | 9,934 (55%) | 2,060 (55%) | 1,646 (56%) | 373 (51%) | |||
| Recipient blood group | 0.440 | 0.001 | 0.019 | ||||
| A | 18,304 (44%) | 3,752 (44%) | 2,629 (42%) | 618 (48%) | |||
| AB | 2,737 (7%) | 539 (6%) | 500 (8%) | 72 (6%) | |||
| B | 5,300 (13%) | 1,051 (12%) | 859 (14%) | 158 (12%) | |||
| O | 15,439 (37%) | 3,227 (38%) | 2,288 (36%) | 437 (34%) | |||
a b c represent the lower quartile a, the median b, and the upper quartile c for continuous variables. Numbers within parenthesis are frequencies. The numbers were calculated from patients with data available.
#Drug or insulin treated diabetes mellitus.
†Drug treated systemic hypertension.
‡Infection requiring intravenous antibiotic therapy within two weeks prior to transplant.
*Previous transplant—previous kidney, liver, pancreas, pancreas islet cells, heart, lung, intestine and/or bone marrow transplant. COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; DC, derivation cohort; HLA, human leukocyte antigen; ISHLT, international society for heart and lung transplantation; IVC, internal validation cohort; NTTD, Nordic thoracic transplantation database; PRA, panel reactive antibody; PVR, pulmonary vascular resistance; SPP, systolic pulmonary pressure. TVC, temporal validation cohort. Statistical tests: Unpaired Mann-Whitney U-tests or and χ2 tests.