Table 4.

Most competitive models describing Plasmodium prevalence as assessed using tissue samples collected from northern pintails in 2011–2012 from Alaska, California, and Japan where psi (Ψ) is the estimate of prevalence and rho (ρ) is the estimate of detection probability from occupancy models. Abbreviations used for sub-regions in Alaska are as follows: NWR = National Wildlife Refuge, Y-K = Yukon-Kuskokwim, K-N = Koyukuk-Nowitna.

Predicting Plasmodium infection							Parameters for top Plasmodium model
Model	QAICc	ΔQAICc	QAICc weights	Model likelihood	No. of parameters	Deviance		Estimate	s.e.	Lower c.i.	Upper c.i.
{Ψ Alaska sub-region vs Others, ρ}	189.771	0.000	0.775	1.000	5	22.539	ρ	0.928	0.040	0.800	0.976
{Ψ Sub-region, ρ}	192.293	2.522	0.220	0.283	7	21.002	Ψ Izembek NWR	0.005	0.007	0.000	0.081
{Ψ Sub-region * Age, ρ}	201.016	11.245	0.003	0.004	12	19.492	Ψ Y-K Delta NWR	0.045	0.022	0.017	0.112
{Ψ Sub-region * Sex, ρ}	201.101	11.330	0.003	0.004	13	17.517	Ψ K-N NWR	0.176	0.040	0.111	0.267
{Ψ Region, ρ}	210.264	20.493	0.000	0.000	4	45.055	Ψ California + Japan	0.026	0.014	0.009	0.074
{Ψ K-N NWR vs Others, ρ}	212.223	22.452	0.000	0.000	3	49.033
{Ψ Sub-region * Age * Sex, ρ}	216.875	27.104	0.000	0.000	23	12.419	Variance inflation = 2.156
{Ψ Sub-region * Age * Sex, ρ Alaska sub-region vs Others}	218.987	29.216	0.000	0.000	24	12.417
{Ψ Sub-region * Age * Sex, ρ Region}	220.764	30.993	0.000	0.000	25	12.075
{Ψ Sub-region * Age * Sex, ρ Sub-region}	223.532	33.761	0.000	0.000	28	8.456
{Ψ Sub-region * Age * Sex, ρ Sub-region * Sex}	224.676	34.906	0.000	0.000	30	5.318
{Ψ Sub-region * Age * Sex, ρ Sub-region * Age}	226.972	37.201	0.000	0.000	31	5.464
{Ψ Sub-region * Age * Sex, ρ Sub-region * Age * Sex}	254.518	64.747	0.000	0.000	44	4.602
{Ψ Sub-region * Age * Sex, ρ Sub-region * Age * Sex * Run}	300.068	110.297	0.000	0.000	66	0.000