Table 4. Comparison of predictive accuracy between PF and FI approaches in predicting falls, fractures and death*.
| Outcomes | Statistics 1 for strategy 1 | Statistics 1 for strategy 2 | Statistics 1 for strategy 3 | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age-adjusted model | Multivariable model 2 | Age-adjusted model | Multivariable model 2 | Age-adjusted model | Multivariable model 2 | |
| Falls | ||||||
| PF model | 0.56 (0.54–0.58) | 0.68 (0.66–0.70) | 0.56 (0.54–0.58) | 0.68 (0.66–0.70) | 0.56 (0.54–0.58) | 0.68 (0.66–0.70) |
| FI model | 0.60 (0.58–0.62) | 0.69 (0.67–0.71) | 0.59 (0.57–0.61) | 0.69 (0.67–0.71) | 0.59 (0.57–0.61) | 0.69 (0.67–0.71) |
| P-value for difference of AUCs | P<0.001 | 0.064 | 0.012 | 0.066 | 0.020 | 0.11 |
| Fractures | ||||||
| PF model | 0.77 (0.65–0.87) | 0.71 (0.59–0.82) | 0.77 (0.65–0.87) | 0.71 (0.59–0.82) | 0.77 (0.65–0.87) | 0.71 (0.59–0.82) |
| FI model | 0.74 (0.62–0.85) | 0.69 (0.57–0.80) | 0.75 (0.63–0.85) | 0.70 (0.57–0.81) | 0.75 (0.63–0.85) | 0.69 (0.57–0.81) |
| P-value for difference of c-indices | 0.64 | 0.59 | 0.60 | 0.55 | 0.60 | 0.59 |
| Death | ||||||
| PF model | 0.78 (0.74–0.83) | 0.79 (0.74–0.84) | 0.78 (0.73–0.82) | 0.79 (0.74–0.83) | 0.78 (0.73–0.82) | 0.79 (0.74–0.83) |
| FI model | 0.79 (0.75–0.84) | 0.80 (0.76–0.85) | 0.79 (0.74–0.83) | 0.80 (0.75–0.84) | 0.79 (0.75–0.83) | 0.80 (0.75–0.84) |
| P-value for difference of AUCs | 0.13 | 0.040 | 0.39 | 0.31 | 0.37 | 0.25 |
* Results were expressed as statistics (95% CI); PF: phenotypic frailty; FI: frailty index;
1 AUC for falls and death, and c-index for fractures;
2 Multivariable model adjusted for age, smoking, drinking, BMI, education and baseline falls for falls; adjusted for age, smoking, drinking, baseline fracture, family history of fractures, BMI and education for fractures; adjusted for age, smoking, drinking, BMI and education for death.