Table 1. Main epidemiologic inputs to the model.
| Control | Intervention | Source | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Incidence of ARF | |||
| 1986 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 12.2 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
| 1987 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 7.4/ 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
| 1988 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 2.6 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
| 1989 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 2.7 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
| 1990 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 2.8 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
| 1991 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 3.0 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
| 1992 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 3.2 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
| 1993 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 4.1 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
| 1994 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 1.9 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
| 1995 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 2.0 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
| ARF case-fatality rate * | 0.014 | 0.014 | MINSAP[15] |
| RHD case-fatality rate | |||
| With first ARF ** episode | 0.357 | 0.000 | Lopez[16] |
| With recurrent ARF ** | 0.444 | 0.000 | Lopez[16] |
| With progression of RHD | 0.385 | 0.000 | Lopez[16] |
| Probability of ARF recurrence | |||
| With history of ARF | 0.567 | 0.176 | Lopez[16] |
| With history of RHD | 0.778 | 0.250 | Lopez[16] |
| Probability of requiring surgery | 0.071–0.154 | 0.044–0.060 | |
| First presentation with RHD | 0.071 | 0.000 | Lopez[16] |
| Progression of RHD | 0.154 | 0.000 | Lopez[16] |
Null case-fatality rates were varied in the uncertainty analysis (S1 Table).
* Estimated from published RHD mortality rates and calculated incidence rates.
** “RHD mortality” in this case reflects presence of severe carditis with ARF.