Table 1. Main epidemiologic inputs to the model.
Control | Intervention | Source | |
---|---|---|---|
Incidence of ARF | |||
1986 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 12.2 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
1987 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 7.4/ 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
1988 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 2.6 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
1989 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 2.7 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
1990 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 2.8 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
1991 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 3.0 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
1992 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 3.2 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
1993 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 4.1 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
1994 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 1.9 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
1995 | 12.2 / 100,000 | 2.0 / 100,000 | Nordet et al.[14] |
ARF case-fatality rate * | 0.014 | 0.014 | MINSAP[15] |
RHD case-fatality rate | |||
With first ARF ** episode | 0.357 | 0.000 | Lopez[16] |
With recurrent ARF ** | 0.444 | 0.000 | Lopez[16] |
With progression of RHD | 0.385 | 0.000 | Lopez[16] |
Probability of ARF recurrence | |||
With history of ARF | 0.567 | 0.176 | Lopez[16] |
With history of RHD | 0.778 | 0.250 | Lopez[16] |
Probability of requiring surgery | 0.071–0.154 | 0.044–0.060 | |
First presentation with RHD | 0.071 | 0.000 | Lopez[16] |
Progression of RHD | 0.154 | 0.000 | Lopez[16] |
Null case-fatality rates were varied in the uncertainty analysis (S1 Table).
* Estimated from published RHD mortality rates and calculated incidence rates.
** “RHD mortality” in this case reflects presence of severe carditis with ARF.