Table 3.

Results of Multinomial Logistic Regression Model for Predictors of Quarterly Undersupply and Oversupply of Diabetes-related Medications

	Odds Ratios (95% CIa)		Adjusted Predicted Probabilities (95% CI)
	Undersupply	Oversupply	Undersupply	Appropriate Supply	Oversupply
Sex
Male (ref)	--	--	0.38 (0.35-0.40)	0.56 (0.53-0.58)	0.06 (0.05-0.08)
Female	1.15 (0.99-1.33)	0.78 (0.55-1.09)	0.41 (0.39-0.44)	0.54 (0.52-0.56)	0.05 (0.04-0.06)
Race/ethnicity
White (ref)	--	--	0.38 (0.36-0.39)	0.57 (0.55-0.58)	0.06 (0.05-0.07)
Black	1.98 (1.43-2.72)**	0.86 (0.39-1.88)	0.53 (0.46-0.60)	0.43 (0.36-0.50)	0.04 (0.01-0.06)
Other/Unknown	2.29 (1.64-3.19)**	1.43 (0.65-3.13)	0.55 (0.48-0.62)	0.39 (0.32-0.46)	0.06 (0.02-0.09)
Age and Insurance Status
HMO coverage only, any age (ref)	--	--	0.42 (0.39-0.46)	0.55 (0.52-0.59)	0.02 (0.01-0.03)
Age <65 in Medicare only	0.87 (0.64-1.18)	3.36 (1.61-6.99)**	0.38 (0.32-0.43)	0.55 (0.50-0.61)	0.07 (0.04-0.10)
Age <65 in Medicare & Medicaid	1.01 (0.77-1.33)	4.55 (2.33-8.92)**	0.40 (0.35-0.45)	0.51 (0.46-0.56)	0.09 (0.05-0.12)
Age ≥65 in Medicare only	0.89 (0.73-1.09)	2.51 (1.37-4.60)**	0.39 (0.36-0.42)	0.56 (0.53-0.59)	0.05 (0.04-0.07)
Age ≥65 in Medicare & Medicaid	0.80 (0.59-1.08)	5.73 (2.89-11.33)**	0.35 (0.29-0.40)	0.54 (0.49-0.59)	0.11 (0.08-0.15)
Baseline ACG-PMb score
Quartile 1 (ref)	--	--	0.35 (0.32-0.38)	0.59 (0.56-0.62)	0.06 (0.04-0.08)
Quartile 2	1.08 (0.92-1.27)	1.04 (0.72-1.51)	0.37 (0.34-0.39)	0.57 (0.55-0.60)	0.06 (0.04-0.07)
Quartile 3	1.24 (1.03-1.49)*	1.09 (0.69-1.71)	0.39 (0.37-0.42)	0.55 (0.52-0.58)	0.06 (0.04-0.07)
Quartile 4	1.78 (1.42-2.22)**	1.08 (0.64-1.82)	0.48 (0.44-0.51)	0.47 (0.44-0.51)	0.05 (0.04-0.06)
Diabetes Complications
No (ref)	--	--	0.40 (0.38-0.42)	0.54 (0.52-0.56)	0.06 (0.05-0.07)
Yes	0.91 (0.74-1.11)	0.85 (0.55-1.32)	0.38 (0.34-0.42)	0.57 (0.53-0.60)	0.05 (0.04-0.07)
Depression
No (ref)	--	--	0.39 (0.38-0.41)	0.55 (0.53-0.57)	0.06 (0.05-0.07)
Yes	1.05 (0.84-1.31)	0.82 (0.49-1.37)	0.41 (0.36-0.45)	0.55 (0.50-0.59)	0.05 (0.03-0.07)
Dementia
No (ref)	--	--	0.40 (0.38-0.41)	0.55 (0.53-0.57)	0.05 (0.05-0.06)
Yes	1.08 (0.77-1.52)	1.54 (0.85-2.77)	0.40 (0.33-0.47)	0.52 (0.45-0.59)	0.08 (0.04-0.11)
Alcohol or drug abuse
No (ref)	--	--	0.39 (0.38-0.41)	0.55 (0.53-0.57)	0.06 (0.05-0.06)
Yes	1.61 (1.05-2.48)*	0.66 (0.20-2.13)	0.51 (0.41-0.60)	0.46 (0.37-0.56)	0.03 (0.00-0.07)
Psychoses
No (ref)	--	--	0.41 (0.39-0.42)	0.54 (0.53-0.56)	0.05 (0.04-0.06)
Yes	0.73 (0.55-0.96)*	1.73 (1.05-2.84)*	0.33 (0.28-0.38)	0.58 (0.53-0.64)	0.09 (0.06-0.12)
Total number of diabetes-related medications at baseline
1-2 (ref)	--	--	0.44 (0.41-0.48)	0.51 (0.47-0.54)	0.05 (0.03-0.07)
3-4	0.76 (0.62-0.92)**	0.96 (0.78-1.98)	0.38 (0.36-0.41)	0.56 (0.54-0.59)	0.05 (0.04-0.07)
5-6	0.71 (0.56-0.89)**	1.29 (0.75-2.23)	0.36 (0.33-0.39)	0.57 (0.53-0.60)	0.07 (0.05-0.09)
≥7	0.85 (0.62-1.16)	0.54 (0.23-1.16)	0.42 (0.36-0.47)	0.55 (0.50-0.61)	0.03 (0.01-0.05)
Total number of unique medications (all types) at baseline
0-5 (ref)	--	--	0.38 (0.35-0.42)	0.57 (0.54-0.61)	0.05 (0.03-0.07)
6-10	1.08 (0.88-1.32)	1.24 (0.78-1.98)	0.40 (0.37-0.42)	0.55 (0.52-0.58)	0.05 (0.04-0.07)
11-15	1.16 (0.90-1.50)	1.36 (0.76-2.44)	0.41 (0.37-0.45)	0.53 (0.50-0.57)	0.06 (0.04-0.08)
≥16	1.20 (0.84-1.71)	1.90 (0.97-3.71)	0.41 (0.35-0.47)	0.51 (0.46-0.57)	0.08 (0.05-0.11)
K-index for study period
Quartile 1 (ref)	--	--	0.42 (0.38-0.45)	0.54 (0.51-0.57)	0.05 (0.03-0.06)
Quartile 2	0.94 (0.76-1.15)	1.51 (0.96-2.37)	0.39 (0.36-0.43)	0.54 (0.51-0.57)	0.07 (0.05-0.08)
Quartile 3	0.98 (0.79-1.20)	1.17 (0.74-1.87)	0.41 (0.38-0.44)	0.54 (0.51-0.57)	0.05 (0.04-0.07)
Quartile 4	0.82 (0.66-1.01)	1.27 (0.79-2.03)	0.37 (0.34-0.40)	0.57 (0.54-0.61)	0.06 (0.04-0.08)
Insulin use, %(n)
No	--	--	0.39 (0.37-0.41)	0.56 (0.54-0.58)	0.05 (0.05-0.06)
Yes	1.14 (0.96-1.35)	1.14 (0.79-1.64)	0.41 (0.38-0.45)	0.53 (0.50-0.56)	0.06 (0.04-0.07)
Number of unique providers seen for E&Mc visits per quarter
0 (ref)	--	--	0.41 (0.39-0.44)	0.54 (0.51-0.56)	0.05 (0.04-0.06)
1	0.81 (0.72-0.90)**	1.02 (0.81-1.29)	0.37 (0.35-0.38)	0.58 (0.56-0.60)	0.06 (0.05-0.07)
2	0.96 (0.85-1.09)	1.07 (0.81-1.40)	0.40 (0.38-0.43)	0.54 (0.52-0.56)	0.06 (0.05-0.07)
≥3	1.07 (0.93-1.24)	1.04 (0.75-1.44)	0.43 (0.40-0.45)	0.52 (0.49-0.55)	0.05 (0.04-0.07)
Any days in inpatient setting
No (ref)	--	--	0.38 (0.36-0.40)	0.56 (0.55-0.58)	0.06 (0.05-0.07)
Yes (ref)	2.35 (2.02-2.74)**	1.23 (0.86-1.77)	0.57 (0.53-0.60)	0.38 (0.35-0.42)	0.05 (0.03-0.06)
Any 90-day prescription fills in the quarter
No (ref)	--	--	0.41 (0.40-0.43)	0.54 (0.52-0.56)	0.04 (0.04-0.05)
Yes (ref)	0.58 (0.47-0.71)**	2.64 (1.88-3.70)**	0.28 (0.24-0.31)	0.60 (0.56-0.64)	0.12 (0.10-0.15)
Last available A1cd prior to quarter
<7% (ref)	--	--	0.39 (0.37-0.41)	0.56 (0.54-0.58)	0.05 (0.04-0.06)
7% to <9%	1.00 (0.87-1.16)	1.38 (1.03-1.87)*	0.39 (0.36-0.41)	0.55 (0.52-0.57)	0.07 (0.05-0.08)
≥9%	1.59 (1.27-2.00)**	0.98 (0.56-1.70)	0.50 (0.45-0.54)	0.46 (0.42-0.51)	0.04 (0.02-0.06)
Not tested	0.73 (0.53-1.01)	1.18 (0.65-2.14)	0.32 (0.27-0.38)	0.61 (0.55-0.67)	0.06 (0.03-0.09)
Last available LDLe prior to quarter
<100 mg/dl (ref)	--	--	0.35 (0.33-0.37)	0.59 (0.56-0.61)	0.06 (0.05-0.07)
100-129 mg/dl	1.19 (1.01-1.40)*	0.96 (0.71-1.32)	0.39 (0.36-0.42)	0.55 (0.52-0.59)	0.06 (0.04-0.07)
≥130 mg/dl	2.60 (2.08-3.24)**	0.86 (0.46-1.62)	0.57 (0.52-0.62)	0.39 (0.35-0.44)	0.04 (0.02-0.06)
Not tested	1.47 (1.20-1.81)**	0.94 (0.61-1.45)	0.44 (0.40-0.48)	0.51 (0.47-0.55)	0.05 (0.02-0.07)
Last available BPf prior to quarter
<130/80 (ref)	--	--	0.42 (0.39-0.45)	0.53 (0.50-0.56)	0.05 (0.03-0.06)
(≥130/80)	0.90 (0.78-1.03)	1.23 (0.90-1.68)	0.40 (0.38-0.41)	0.55 (0.53-0.56)	0.06 (0.05-0.07)
Missing	0.71 (0.57-0.90)**	0.88 (0.53-1.46)	0.35 (0.31-0.39)	0.60 (0.56-0.64)	0.05 (0.03-0.06)

^*p<.05

^**p<.01

^aCI = confidence interval; ref, reference group

^bACG-PM = adjusted clinical groups – predictive model

^cE&M = evaluation and management

^dA1c = glycated hemoglobin

^eLDL = low-density lipoprotein

^fBP = blood pressure; mg/dl, milligrams per deciliter.