Table 2.
Risk (HR [95% CI]) of incident diabetes by quartiles of HDL and LDL indices, sequentially adjusted, among MESA participants without diabetes at baseline (N = 5,314)
| Predictors and covariates | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | P value for trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HDL size, nm | ≤8.9 | 9.0–9.2 | 9.3–9.6 | ≥9.7 | |
| Base covariates* | 1.79 (1.37–2.35) | 1.52 (1.16–1.98) | 1.19 (0.91–1.57) | 1.0 (Reference) | <0.0001 |
| + Glucose | 1.36 (1.04–1.78) | 1.24 (0.95–1.62) | 1.06 (0.81–1.40) | 1.0 (Reference) | <0.0001 |
| + Insulin† | 1.34 (1.02–1.76) | 1.21 (0.93–1.58) | 1.05 (0.79–1.38) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.01 |
| + HOMA-IR† | 1.17 (0.89–1.54) | 1.10 (0.84–1.44) | 0.98 (0.74–1.29) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.12 |
| + TGtoHDL-C ratio† | 1.24 (0.94–1.64) | 1.12 (0.85–1.47) | 1.01 (0.76–1.33) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.06 |
| Large HDL-P, µmol/L | ≤3.4 | 3.5–5.3 | 5.4–8.0 | ≥8.1 | |
| Base covariates* | 2.30 (1.75–3.03) | 1.80 (1.38–2.34) | 1.41 (1.08–1.85) | 1.0 (Reference) | <0.0001 |
| + Glucose | 1.67 (1.27–2.19) | 1.38 (1.06–1.81) | 1.39 (1.06–1.82) | 1.0 (Reference) | <0.0001 |
| + Insulin† | 1.63 (1.23–2.17) | 1.44 (1.10–1.88) | 1.24 (0.95–1.62) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.0004 |
| + HOMA-IR† | 1.40 (1.06–1.85) | 1.30 (0.99–1.69) | 1.17 (0.89–1.53) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.02 |
| + TGtoHDL-C ratio† | 1.36 (0.99–1.88) | 1.25 (0.94–1.67) | 1.16 (0.88–1.52) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.06 |
| Medium HDL-P, µmol/L | ≤8.9 | 9.0–12.8 | 12.9–17.5 | ≥17.6 | |
| Base covariates* | 1.55 (1.22–1.98) | 1.39 (1.09–1.77) | 1.25 (0.98–1.61) | 1.0 (Reference) | <0.0001 |
| + Glucose | 1.40 (1.10–1.79) | 1.18 (0.92–1.51) | 1.24 (0.97–1.59) | 1.0 (Reference) | <0.0001 |
| + Insulin† | 1.32 (1.04–1.69) | 1.22 (0.96–1.56) | 1.16 (0.91–1.49) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.03 |
| + HOMA-IR† | 1.24 (0.97–1.58) | 1.15 (0.90–1.47) | 1.12 (0.88–1.44) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.10 |
| + TGtoHDL-C ratio† | 1.24 (0.97–1.59) | 1.22 (0.95–1.56) | 1.23 (0.96–1.57) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.15 |
| HDL-C, mg/dL | ≤40 | 41–49 | 50–59 | ≥60 | |
| Base covariates* | 2.37 (1.80–3.12) | 1.87 (1.44–2.44) | 1.51 (1.15–1.98) | 1.0 (Reference) | <0.0001 |
| + Glucose | 1.64 (1.25–2.16) | 1.53 (1.18–1.99) | 1.36 (1.03–1.78) | 1.0 (Reference) | <0.0001 |
| + Insulin† | 1.68 (1.27–2.23) | 1.47 (1.13–1.92) | 1.31 (0.99–1.72) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.0003 |
| + HOMA-IR† | 1.42 (1.07–1.89) | 1.32 (1.01–1.72) | 1.22 (0.93–1.60) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.02 |
| + Large VLDL-P† | 1.78 (1.34–2.39) | 1.59 (1.22–2.08) | 1.41 (1.08–1.98) | 1.0 (Reference) | <0.0001 |
| + LP-IR | 1.15 (0.84–1.60) | 1.10 (0.82–1.47) | 1.15 (0.87–1.52) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.54 |
| LDL size, nm | ≤20.3 | 20.4–20.8 | 20.9–21.1 | ≥21.2 | |
| Base covariates* | 2.41 (1.86–3.12) | 2.01 (1.56–2.58) | 1.43 (1.09–1.88) | 1.0 (Reference) | <0.0001 |
| + Glucose | 1.68 (1.30–2.18) | 1.65 (1.28–2.12) | 1.26 (0.96–1.66) | 1.0 (Reference) | <0.0001 |
| + Insulin† | 1.84 (1.41–2.48) | 1.68 (1.31–2.17) | 1.29 (0.98–1.70) | 1.0 (Reference) | <0.0001 |
| + HOMA-IR† | 1.62 (1.24–2.11) | 1.55 (1.20–2.00) | 1.24 (0.94–1.63) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.0001 |
| + TGtoHDL-C ratio† | 1.30 (1.01–1.92) | 1.51 (1.15–1.98) | 1.24 (0.94–1.64) | 1.0 (Reference) | 0.03 |
| Small LDL-P, nmol/L | ≤108 | 109–501 | 502–780 | ≥781 | |
| Base covariates* | 1.0 (Reference) | 1.55 (1.17–2.04) | 2.11 (1.62–2.76) | 2.42 (1.86–3.16) | <0.0001 |
| + Glucose | 1.0 (Reference) | 1.46 (1.11–1.92) | 1.81 (1.38–2.36) | 1.80 (1.38–2.34) | <0.0001 |
| + Insulin† | 1.0 (Reference) | 1.35 (1.02–1.78) | 1.71 (1.30–2.24) | 1.86 (1.42–2.44) | <0.0001 |
| + HOMA-IR† | 1.0 (Reference) | 1.27 (0.96–1.68) | 1.55 (1.18–2.03) | 1.65 (1.26–2.15) | 0.0001 |
| + TGtoHDL-C ratio† | 1.0 (Reference) | 1.34 (1.02–1.77) | 1.57 (1.18–2.08) | 1.48 (1.09–2.02) | 0.02 |
Statistically significant HRs are bolded.
*
Models adjusted for base covariates of age, sex, race/ethnicity, BMI, family history of diabetes, alcohol use, smoking, physical activity, and treatment group (none, lipid-lowering medications, or HT use). Subsequent models additionally adjust for covariate(s) listed.
†
Log transformed.