Figure 1:

Simplified schematic of Markov state transition model. Model replicates solid (90%) and cystic (10%) pathways to PDAC. In solid pathway, screening allowed for detection of localized cancers and prompted surgery. In cystic pathway, affected patients developed a low-risk cystic lesion, which could progress to a high-risk cystic lesion or localized cancer. Patients with high-risk lesions and localized cancers were triaged to surgery and those with low-risk lesions underwent imaging surveillance, with surgery performed in instances of progression.