Table 3. Accuracy of the full prediction model and deconstructed models in predicting the 10-year incidence of COPD in the validation cohort for females (N=126,449) and males (N=121,306).

	ROC AUC , females	95% CI around ROCAUC		ROCAUC, males	95% CI around ROCAUC
		Lower	Upper		Lower	Upper
Model including only risk factor smoking	0.709	0.703	0.715	0.671	0.665	0.678
Model including only risk factor age	0.728	0.721	0.734	0.763	0.757	0.769
Model including risk factors age and smoking	0.829	0.824	0.834	0.817	0.812	0.822
Full model including all risk factors: age, smoking, level of deprivation and prior asthma	0.845	0.840	0.850	0.832	0.827	0.837

Abbreviations: CI, confidence interval; COPD, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; ROC_AUC, area under the receiver operating characteristics curve.