Table 2.
Estimated treatment effect for each outcome relative to fluconazole (base case analysis using a non-informed prior)
| Comparator |
Median posterior odds-ratio relative to fluconazole
(interquartile range) a |
Posterior probability of having lower incidence than fluconazole | Posterior probability of having the lowest incidence of all treatments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proven/probable IFI at 180 days | |||
| Fluconazole | – | – | 2% |
| Itraconazole | 0.52 (0.35–0.76) | 84% | 27% |
| Posaconazole | 0.56 (0.32–0.99) | 75% | 32% |
| Voriconazole | 0.46 (0.28–0.73) | 84% | 39% |
| Proven/probable IA at 180 days | |||
| Fluconazole | – | – | 2% |
| Itraconazole | 0.68 (0.42–1.12) | 71% | 9% |
| Posaconazole | 0.31 (0.15–0.63) | 83% | 47% |
| Voriconazole | 0.33 (0.17–0.58) | 87% | 41% |
| Proven IC at 180 days | |||
| Fluconazole | – | – | 5% |
| Itraconazole | 0.28 (0.11– 0.60) | 85% | 59% |
| Posaconazole | 0.98 (0.28–3.45) | 51% | 23% |
| Voriconazole | 1.19 (0.43–4.19) | 46% | 13% |
| All-cause mortality | |||
| Fluconazole | – | – | 20% |
| Itraconazole | 1.18 (0.96–1.44) | 29% | 11% |
| Posaconazole | 0.98 (0.74–1.27) | 53% | 40% |
| Voriconazole | 1.02 (0.82–1.26) | 48% | 29% |
| OLAT use at 180 days | |||
| Fluconazole | – | – | 10% |
| Itraconazole | 0.91 (0.49–1.58) | 56% | 18% |
| Posaconazole | 1.08 (0.53–2.21) | 46% | 23% |
| Voriconazole | 0.63 (0.35–1.09) | 73% | 49% |
IFI, invasive fungal infections; IA, invasive aspergillosis; IC, invasive candidiasis; OLAT, other licensed antifungal therapy.
aEstimates less than zero indicate a reduced probability of proven/probable IFI at 180 days relative to fluconazole.