Table 3.
Estimated treatment effect for each outcome relative to fluconazole (sensitivity analysis using an empirical prior)
| Comparator |
Median posterior odds-ratio relative to fluconazole
(interquartile range) a |
Posterior probability of having lower incidence than fluconazole | Posterior probability of having the lowest incidence of all treatments |
|---|---|---|---|
| Proven/probable IFI at 180 days | |||
| Fluconazole | – | – | 0% |
| Itraconazole | 0.54 (0.42–0.67) | 95% | 27% |
| Posaconazole | 0.57 (0.41–0.76) | 88% | 29% |
| Voriconazole | 0.47 (0.36–0.63) | 95% | 44% |
| Proven/probable IA at 180 days | |||
| Fluconazole | – | – | 0% |
| Itraconazole | 0.68 (0.53–0.90) | 82% | 4% |
| Posaconazole | 0.30 (0.20–0.45) | 96% | 59% |
| Voriconazole | 0.37 (0.26–0.54) | 96% | 36% |
| Proven IC at 180 days | |||
| Fluconazole | – | – | 2% |
| Itraconazole | 0.31 (0.19–0.49) | 95% | 71% |
| Posaconazole | 0.97 (0.49–1.96) | 51% | 16% |
| Voriconazole | 0.90 (0.49–1.69) | 55% | 12% |
| All-cause mortality | |||
| Fluconazole | – | – | 22% |
| Itraconazole | 1.18 (1.03–1.34) | 21% | 7% |
| Posaconazole | 0.98 (0.82–1.16) | 54% | 41% |
| Voriconazole | 1.01 (0.88–1.17) | 48% | 30% |
| OLAT use at 180 days | |||
| Fluconazole | – | – | 3% |
| Itraconazole | 0.95 (0.78–1.14) | 58% | 7% |
| Posaconazole | 1.07 (0.83–1.37) | 43% | 12% |
| Voriconazole | 0.64 (0.54–0.75) | 94% | 79% |
IFI, invasive fungal infections; IA, invasive aspergillosis; IC, invasive candidiasis; OLAT, other licensed antifungal therapy.
aEstimates less than zero indicate a reduced probability of proven/probable IFI at 180 days relative to fluconazole.