Table 3.
Adjusted hazard ratios for dialysis or dialysis-free death, by CKD stage
| CKD stage | Early stage 3 | Late stage 3 | Stage 4 | |||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 1 | Model 2 | Model 1 | Model 2 | |||||||||||||
| AHR | 95% CI | AHR | 95% CI | AHR | 95% CI | AHR | 95% CI | AHR | 95% CI | AHR | 95% CI | |||||||
| Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | Low | High | |||||||
| Variables | ||||||||||||||||||
| eGFR variability (SD) | 1.076 | 1.071 | 1.080 | 1.072 | 1.067 | 1.076 | 1.080 | 1.074 | 1.085 | 1.076 | 1.069 | 1.082 | 1.076 | 1.063 | 1.089 | 1.073 | 1.061 | 1.085 |
| eGFR mean | 0.963 | 0.961 | 0.966 | 0.968 | 0.965 | 0.970 | 0.950 | 0.948 | 0.953 | 0.951 | 0.948 | 0.954 | 0.928 | 0.922 | 0.933 | 0.927 | 0.922 | 0.933 |
| eGFR slope (ml/min/1.73 m2 per year; 10 unit decrease) | 1.011 | 1.004 | 1.018 | 1.010 | 1.003 | 1.017 | 1.007 | 1.004 | 1.009 | 1.008 | 1.006 | 1.011 | 1.064 | 1.035 | 1.094 | 1.067 | 1.038 | 1.096 |
| Age (in years) | ||||||||||||||||||
| 45-54 | 0.83 | 0.63 | 1.08 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 1.19 | 0.91 | 0.66 | 1.25 | |||||||||
| 55-64 | 0.89 | 0.68 | 1.16 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 1.19 | 0.86 | 0.63 | 1.18 | |||||||||
| 65-74 | 1.17 | 0.90 | 1.51 | 0.98 | 0.77 | 1.24 | 0.85 | 0.62 | 1.15 | |||||||||
| 75-84 | 1.58 | 1.22 | 2.05 | 1.15 | 0.91 | 1.46 | 0.82 | 0.60 | 1.12 | |||||||||
| 85 and above | 2.71 | 2.05 | 3.57 | 1.78 | 1.37 | 2.31 | 1.07 | 0.75 | 1.52 | |||||||||
| <45 (reference) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Sex | ||||||||||||||||||
| Women | 0.63 | 0.54 | 0.72 | 0.64 | 0.55 | 0.76 | 0.66 | 0.54 | 0.81 | |||||||||
| Men (reference) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Race/ethnicity | ||||||||||||||||||
| African American | 1.07 | 1.02 | 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.03 | 1.16 | 1.14 | 1.06 | 1.22 | |||||||||
| Hispanic | 0.96 | 0.85 | 1.09 | 0.91 | 0.79 | 1.05 | 0.93 | 0.79 | 1.10 | |||||||||
| Others | 0.82 | 0.70 | 0.96 | 0.95 | 0.81 | 1.11 | 1.05 | 0.87 | 1.27 | |||||||||
| White (reference) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| VHA priority status | ||||||||||||||||||
| Severely disabled | 1.26 | 1.21 | 1.32 | 1.17 | 1.11 | 1.23 | 1.2 | 1.12 | 1.28 | |||||||||
| Moderately disabled | 0.96 | 0.91 | 1.01 | 0.93 | 0.87 | 0.98 | 1.03 | 0.95 | 1.12 | |||||||||
| Co-pay required | 0.79 | 0.74 | 0.84 | 0.86 | 0.8 | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.83 | 1.02 | |||||||||
| Poverty (reference) | 1 | 1 | 1 | |||||||||||||||
| Prior hospitalization | 1.56 | 1.50 | 1.62 | 1.48 | 1.42 | 1.55 | 1.28 | 1.21 | 1.37 | |||||||||
| Cardiovascular conditions | 1.52 | 1.45 | 1.59 | 1.38 | 1.31 | 1.46 | 1.21 | 1.13 | 1.30 | |||||||||
| Mental comorbidities | 1.12 | 1.07 | 1.17 | 1.10 | 1.04 | 1.16 | 1.06 | 0.99 | 1.14 | |||||||||
CKD: Chronic Kidney Disease; Model 1: Containing eGFR variation (SD), mean, and slope variables; Model 2: Model 1 plus all other independent variables (age, sex, race/ethnicity, VHA priority status, presence of hospitalization, cardiovascular conditions, and mental comorbidities); AHR: Adjusted Hazard Ratio; CI: Confidence Interval; All variables except for eGFR SD, mean and slope variables (time-varying variables) were derived from the baseline period. The indicator of presence of non-cardiovascular conditions (Table 1) was not included in the modeling because about 99% of patients had the conditions; eGFR: estimated Glomerular Filtration Rate; SD: standard deviation; VHA: Veterans Health Administration. The 880 people in the missing category of VHA priority status (Table 1) was not included for this analysis; We rounded the estimates for eGFR SD, mean and slope to the third decimal place to allow differentiation between the AHR, and low and high limit of the 95% CIs.