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. 2015 Mar 30;10(3):e0120981. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0120981

Fig 1. Range of prior opinions elicited before introduction of the MYCYC data.

Fig 1

Fig 1A) Comparison of Expert A’s prior densities for pC and pM. Expert A thought the most likely value of pC is 0.65 and was 75% confident that pC exceeds 0.45. Expert A was optimistic about the relative efficacy of MMF stating that the chance that MMF is superior to CYC is 63% while the chance it is inferior to CYC is 5%. Fig 1B) Comparison of Expert B’s prior densities for pC and pM. Expert B thought the most likely value of pC is 0.8 and was 75% confident that pC exceeds 0.55. Expert B was more sceptical about the benefits of MMF, stating that the chance that MMF is superior to CYC is 10% while the chance it is inferior to CYC is 50%. Given each expert’s prior opinion about pC and the relative efficacies of MMF and CYC, a consistent prior for pM is derived.